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Sunday
the Riders will attempt to take the first step in defending their Grey Cup
championship when they travel to Edmonton to battle the 2nd place
Eskimos. All the successes and struggles of the previous 18 games don’t mean a
damn thing anymore. It all comes down to 1 game.
At
the beginning of the year I bet more than a few people predicted that the
Riders and Esks would face off in the WSF… however I’m certain no one thought
it would feature the epic QB battle of Nichols vs. Joseph. Speaking of things I didn’t expect, how about
the fact that headed into this game the Rider QB situation is not the hottest
topic. Chances of Durant starting were always remote and I personally didn’t
think it would happen so we’ve known for a while that Joseph would be our guy.
As for Edmonton… they are just trying to find a healthy QB. Rumours have been
swirling since Reilly got hurt 2 games ago that he had a broken bone in is
foot. Turns out they were true as Matt Nichols has been named the starter,
though its being said that Reilly could be available in an emergency situation
(aka if Nichols sucks so bad that a cripple is deemed an upgrade). Complicating
things for the Esks is that 3rd stringer Pat White has a concussion
and is questionable. That means the Esks are one bad hit on Nicols away from
having to choose between crippled Reilly, newbie Matt Scott or newly acquired
Justin Goltz (you know, the guy who adjusts his tie while celebrating TDs
despite being down a ton of points).
While
I don’t believe that the loss of Reilly suddenly makes the Riders the
favourites (have you seen us play over the past 2 months?), I do believe this
is a significant blow the Esks. Reilly’s mobility is an x-factor in that
offense. It’s torched us before. It’s a
nightmare for defenders and opens up the running game and passing game. Nichols
is nowhere near the running threat and that will allow our defender to focus
more on stopping John White and rushing the passer. Nichols is a decent QB but
nowhere near the passer Reilly is either. Also factor in that they like to
insert Pat White with the odd running play and the end result will be a
significantly different playbook for the Esks than usual.
Despite
my less than glowing endorsements of Nichols, he is still a competent QB and
able to do the 2 biggest drivers of that Esk offense. #1 he can hand off to
John White who is a dangerous and talented RB (and like Reilly he has torched us
before). #2 Nichols can also throw short high % passes to Bowman. The Esks do
that a lot to get the ball in the hands of Bowman and let him get YAC yards,
which he is good at, always has been. So Nichols is a downgrade but I’m under
no illusion that the Esk offense will suddenly be rendered useless just by his
presence. Defensively our success hinges on our ability to limit John White. We
did an alright job of that when we met in October and we had a chance to win
that game. Conversely you can’t even call what happened in our first meeting an
attempt to stop him and we lost badly. If we can force Nichols to throw then he
is going to get harassed by our D-line and our secondary will be more than up
to the challenge of stopping him. Look for the Esks to try and get Kendial
Lawrence involve on some short misdirection stuff to help keep pressure off
Nichols. Also, if there was ever a guy I would worry about a postseason
breakout game, its Fred Stamps… guy is simply too good to have this quiet a
season. We have yet to allow the Esks to get more than 24 points and I bet we
hold them to a max of 3 TDs this game too. White will get some plays but I expect our
defense to come out fired up and give Nichols all kinds of trouble.
Offensively,
we will be turning back the clock and hoping old man Joseph has one more
miracle playoff run in him. He faces an imposing foe in that Eskimo defense
though… #1 against the pass, #2 against the run, least points allowed, most
INTs. Let’s not over think this. We have been the most successful when we run
the ball so let’s give them a heavy dose of Allen and whichever of Messam or
the Space Cowboy make the roster. A big
key will be our O-line. Assuming Best plays, it will be the first time since
Game 8 and only the 7th time this season that all 5 starters play
together. We expected a lot from them
this year but injuries and inconsistent play have plagued them. A strong
performance Sunday will make us forget about how the regular season went.
Unless, Chris Jones suffers an acquired brain injury he will be expecting us to
run and likely key up the D to stop it. While we can’t be scared to run, we need
to be able to do other things in order to keep the chains moving. Dressler and Getzlaf will need to step up and
lead the way in the passing game but unless we spread it around to the likes of
Bagg and Williams we are not going to be very effective. Also Joseph is going
to need to use his legs. We don’t need him to duplicate what Durant did last
year and literally carry the team (mostly because at this age that workload
would probably kill him) but if he can mix in the odd run it will help open the running
game up and give him more time to pass. We will need contributions from
everyone on offense if we are going to beat a defense this talented. Spread it
around and be smart with the ball. Each turnover dramatically decreases our
odds of victory.
Also
we really need to get better production in the second half. 0, 6 and 8… that’s
how many second half points we’ve generated this season against the Esks. That
simply won’t cut it. This is going to be a knock down drag out fight… we need
to fight like hell until the very last second expires, no letting up and trying to
coast to the end.
People
have been talking about the concern about Milo’s reliability and it’s valid but
Hugh O’Neil does not exactly instill confidence on the other side so at best
that match-up is a wash and I still give Milo the edge (not that that’s saying much).
The
paper match-up in this game is close with the edge likely going to the Esks. The
one thing that I think will be a big difference is playoff experience. Our
locker room is full of guys with playoff experience who know how to win. The
Esks don’t have many guys with that experience. That “heart” factor can be a
big difference maker come playoff time.
Maybe
I’m picking with my heart but…
Riders
3
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