Monday Morning Sentimonies: Draft Day Approaches

Tomorrow the CFL Draft goes down. If you are new to the CFL Draft a few things to keep in mind… particularly if you just watched the NFL Draft. The CFL Draft is as much like the NFL Draft as a rusted Chevy Cavalier is like a Lamborghini. I mean sure both are technically cars but there are a few features that differ.

The two main things that differentiate the CFL draft are based around the concepts of availability and projected use.

Availability is the big one. The NFL tends not to worry about this concept as anyone with football dreams can be expected to report to the NFL team that drafts them. Hence, the NFL drafts the best player at each position first. CFL is about the best player “available to report”. So for example, the best 2 o-linemen in this draft are Matthew Bergeron and Sidy Sow. But they will not be the first drafted. In fact, it is likely Bergeron goes undrafted because he just went in the 2^nd round of the NFL draft. That means he won’t be coming to the CFL for minimum 3 years if ever. Sow was a 4^th round pick so maybe a team uses a 7^th or 8^th round pick just in case he ever does come north. Or you could use the Chris Jones approach of using a 4^th round pick on an NFL draft pick like David Oneymata when he could have gotten a player with equal impact on the Riders by drafting a bottle of ketchup. So suddenly a guy like Dontae Bull jumps up draft boards not because he is the best Canadian OL but he is the best one who is likely to be in training camp later this month.

Projected use is the other. As much as there are ratio breaking exceptions, by and large CFL teams still exclusively play Canadians at OL, WR, Safety, token LB and token DL. QBs have little to no value. As much as I’d like to think the Nathan Rourke experience will change that, we are a long ways away from any major changes. Prior to Rourke, there has been an endless string of Michael O’Connors, Brandon Bridges and Andrew Buckleys. We can debate the reasons for this another time but odds are overwhelmingly good that taking a QB in the CFL draft will not impact your franchise, other than short term PR.

So where does this all leave the Riders heading into the draft? In my humble opinion (keeping in mind I am by no means a football scout, just some dude who’s been writing about the draft since the day of MySpace), there are only 2 scenarios that can be considered a draft success for the Riders. 

Scenario 1 – Draft OL Dontae Bull in the first round and an impact DL or LB in the second round.

Scenario 2 – Draft an impact DL or LB in the first round and hope to get OL Phillip Grohovac in the second. 

It’s really that simple. Our OL has been garbage for 2 years. This draft is thin on OL worthy of a top 10 pick. So if you are serious about building a line for sustained success you need to prioritize getting one of Bull or Grohovac. Depth behind Teitz is almost non-existent and other than Dabire we don’t really have a Cdn DL. So that’s priority number 2. 

I realize that in a draft/league this small drafting for purely for position and ignoring the “best player available” is not a great strategy. But the reverse is also true. If, of I don’t know, let’s take a purely hypothetical example and say, a GM kept drafting receivers because they were the “best available” but not something we actually needed, that may have some negative consequences on other parts of the team… in theory.

I think it’s likely that one of OL Dontae Bull or DL Lwal Uguak are available at #3 when we pick. I think those should be our priorities in that order. Now, O’Day cares about as much for my opinion as the Bombers care for following the salary cap so I expect the 2022 trend of “expecting to be disappointed to continue”.

If you are wondering, yes, I am always this bright and cheery on a Monday morning.

Monday Morning Sentimonies: CFL Draft Preview

I’m back. Did you miss me? Did you even notice I was gone? Did you I assume that I ended up on the wrong side of a Mexican drug deal and was forced to do things I’m not proud of to survive south of the border?

Well I did go to Mexico and was greeted with Winter Part 18 upon my return. The important thing is that I’m back and ready to jump headfirst into the season. The draft and training camp are coming up quick.

Let’s take a look at the Riders’ Canadian content heading into the draft.

Picks: 8 picks, first selection is 3^rd Overall

Potential Pipeline: DL David Oneymata (Atlanta/Never coming to the CFL), TE Anthony Auclair (NFL free agent), DL Neville Gallimore (Dallas).

Current Strengths:

The injury to Schaefer-Baker is a short term downgrade but overall the Riders are pretty strong at Canadian receiver. When healthy Baker is a stud. Lenius is solid. Picton is a versatile and underrated receiver. We’ll see if Emilus can take a step forward and start earning his first round draft pick status in year 2. Brescacin is there for depth and keep an eye on Boersma who caught eyes in training camp last season.

Defensively we have a bona fide starter in Teitz. I still maintain my status as chairman of the Charbel Dabire fan. I think Jayden Dalke will start at safety and be a star. We have some good depth at DB with Lokombo, 2 Oneyka’s and Beaulieu.

Two guys who are stone cold studs on special teams and should not be overlooked are Brett Lauther and the often forgotten but always spot on Jorgen Hus. Guys like LaFrance, Awachie and LaBelle will be unheralded but are important role players.

Our O-line was god awful but if you are looking for a silver lining, I see two potential positives. First, despite his age, Philip Blake proved he can still be a reliable starter at every position, including tackle where we have lacked anything resembling competence for 2 years. Second, we have a super young group. Outside of Blake our oldest Cdn OL is 28. Still potential to turn this group into a long-term success.

Current Needs:

Outside of receiver and kicker I would label every position an area of need. We have spoken ad nauseum about the need to upgrade the OL. That has to start will a commitment to drafting OL early. Particularly this year when the draft is reportedly thin on top end OL.

On defense ask yourself honestly, what happens if Teitz gets hurt? And while I think Dalke and Dabire have potential, Teitz is the only legit Canadian starter we have on D as of right now. In theory Lokombo should be ready to step in but he hasn’t stayed healthy so far. Beaulieu can start in a pinch but is hardly an impact player other than on teams.

Prediction:

What should happen and what I think will actually happen are 2 very different scenarios. As mentioned, there are few top end OL in this draft. There are some impact defenders out there particularly at DL. What we should do is take and OL first. Sidy Sow is the best but is NFL bound so that should land us on Dontae Bull or maybe Phillip Grohovac. Second pick should be a DL or LB such as Anthony Bennett.

You could maybe make a case to take a defender at #3 which may land you a Lwal Uguak or Francis Beimy. Then you can still likely get and OL at #11 in the second round. This would not be the worst but for obvious reasons, I prefer prioritizing OL.

What is likely to happen? I think Jeremy O’Day gonna O’Day and there is not way he can resist taking a receiver we don’t need in round 1 or 2. He’ll say all the right things “he was too good to pass on” blah blah blah. Wanna know why we have a crap OL and good Canadian receivers? It has to do with priorities. Still not convinced has learned his lesson and is willing to prioritize OL.

Monday Morning Senitmonies: Kian Schaefer-Baker and the Rider Receivers

Big news this past week in Riderville was that Schaefer-Baker had undergone hip surgery and would miss “at least the first part of the season”. This is a rumour that had been floating out there for a while but you need to be pretty careful in terms of what Rider rumours you put any stock in otherwise you might still be wondering what Bo Levi Mitchell did with that house he bought in Regina.

Obviously this hurts the Riders in the short-term. Not only is Baker a stud receiver, we are currently a team without a bona fide #1 receiver and he had the best odds of being that guy. Apparently this is something that had been nagging him for a while. So for me the silver lining is that there is a possibility that when he does come back, he will somehow be better than what we have seen so far. A Baker at 100% down the back half of the season and into playoffs (if we happen to be so lucky as to be in contention for that) would be outstanding.

My concern though is the wording they are using. They aren’t really giving a time estimate (though the first third of the season has been mentioned i.e. 6 games). Also, they are using terms like “at least” and vague statements like “the first part of the season”. Reading between the lines I don’t think this is something we should expect an early return from. I’m also a bit worried given our recent history. Just last year Micah Teitz had a hip issue heading into the season that not a lot of details were given on. As the season wore on, the only thing scarcer than offensive TDs was Teitz. He did not play one snap. Now Teitz apparently got injured in May and had a groin issue to go along with it so Baker is certainly further ahead. But the point is that hip issues can drag on. Let’s all keep positive thoughts that it will be sooner rather than later that we see Baker doing his thing on the field again. My early wild ass guess is he makes his triumphant return on Labour Day.

This injury may explain how the NFL seemed to inexplicably pass on him after he tried out for a third of the league.

The short term impacts of Baker’s absence will be double. First and foremost he is our best receiver. Some of you will disagree and point to Walker or Wieneke. I have said this before and will reiterate that I believe both have potential but Walker hasn’t been a number one guy in 4 years and Wieneke has always played beside Geno Lewis and we don’t have a Geno on this roster. Both could be great but are far from a sure thing at this point. The other impact is that Baker is a Canadian. In theory, Lenius, Picton, Brescacin and Emilus should be able to step in. But even communism works “in theory”. I honestly worry that this will make O’Day think he needs to draft another Canadian receiver in the first or second round, ignoring far greater needs elsewhere.

For now we wish Baker a speedy recovery… and eagerly await the chance to talk about positive Rider news… at some point… right?

Monday Morning Sentimonies: Random Quasi-Coherent Thoughts

 

-        Like most of the world I am furious that my absolute zero knowledge of NCAA did not translate into winning my March Madness pool.  I am outraged that teams I put zero effort in to researching failed to make it out of the first and/or second round rather than making the Final Four as I expected.

-        Lots of CFL talk about expansion this week. A tenth team would be great and should be a goal. Not only for the good news story it would be but also from a balanced schedule and increase in TV product.

-        That said, asking someone to own a CFL team at this point is the equivalent of that time Bart Simpson asked to be Mr. Burns’ heir. You are asking people to take on a liability that will at best break even most years. I think the CFL needs to first focus on improving the financial sustainability of their operations through things like expanded US TV deals, streaming deals and more year-round money making events (like CFL week). If people see a reasonable  chance to actually make money they may be more likely to invest.

-        The Riders seem long overdue to release a new overt money grab… err I mean jersey. Even if the jersey is terrible, it’s a guaranteed cash injection in Sask. They could even up the ante and give people what they want… Black Jerseys. Some people love, em some people hate em but they will sell like crazy.

-        St Patrick’s day got me thinking about how its kinda surprising the Riders don’t sell green beer on game day. They could charge $0.50 extra for “Rider Pride” beer (aka low-grade Pilsner and food dye) and people would be all over it.

-        While we are talking easy money makers the Riders are missing out on… Bobby Jurasin bandanas.

-        All I ask is a small commission in return as my consultant fee.

Monday Morning Sentimonies: Canadian Receivers

I’ll warn you in advance that today we are going down a rabbit hole. I stumbled down this rabbit hole while researching last week’s post on O’Day’s drafting. While I’m sure this information is relatively useless in the grand scheme of things, I’m sharing it anyway because maybe one of my half dozens of readers will find this as interesting as me (aka I'll feel reassured if someone is as boring and lame as me).

So we know from last week that O’Day likes to draft receivers early. So that led me to a very simple question of “How successful are Canadian receivers drafted in the first round?”. Basically, what is your likely return on investment for a first round WR.

The results are pretty awful. Now I’ll will preface this by saying that receivers are not always unique in this. The number of 1^st round CFL picks that pan out is not huge. But receivers appear to be even riskier than the norm. I’m sure teams are worried about passing on the next Clermont or Fantuz but the reality is that is a pretty small risk. 

Here is a list of every receiver drafted in the first round since 2011:

·        Anothony Parker

·        Jade Etienne

·        Marco Iannuzzi

·        Nate Coehoorn

·        Shamawd Chambers

·        Devon Bailey

·        Nic Demski

·        Brian Jones

·        Tevaughn Smith

·        Danny Vandervoot

·        Nate Behar

·        Mark Chapman

·        Justin McInnis

·        Hergy Mayala

·        Dejon Brissett

·        Jalen Philpot

·        Sam Emilus

·        Tyson Philpot

What jumps out about that list? … It contains very few studs and very many duds. I’ll reserve judgment for on the Philpott’s for now as they look to have high ceilings. But so far there is only one guy on that list that is a stud. That being Demski. He is literally a once in a decade talent. Other than Demski only two other people on that list has got over 650 yards in a season and only three others have put up 5 or more TDs in a season. That means you have less than a 50% chance of getting even a moderately impactful player and more than a 50%  chance someone who will never top 350 yards. Also worth noting that over the past 10 years, only twice has a receiver drafted in the first round led the league in receiving yards by a Canadian (Fantuz 2016 and Demski 2021).

So based on how many 1^st round WR end up being mediocre or worse, it got me wondering how a GM would fare if they adopted a policy of never drafting a receiver in the first round. Not saying someone would or should do it, just curious how it would pan out in theory.

Since 2011, there were 4 years that you would have had to use a 1^st round pick to get the best receiver. But the other 7 years, if you have avoided the first round, you still could have gotten the best receiver in the draft (in my opinion). That includes 2011 when a record 4 receivers went in the first round but the best receiver ended up being a 4^th round QB (Sinopoli). It also included 2019 when 4 receivers went in the first 2 rounds and the Argos patiently waited and got Kurleigh Gittens in the 3^rd. And 2020 when the Argos were at the other end of the spectrum, using the 2^nd overall pick on Dejon Brisset when the best receiver was still available 28 picks later in the 4^th round when the Riders took Schaefer-Baker.

Not only are your odds better of finding the best receiver in the draft outside of the first round, if we go back to the stat that over the past 10 years, only twice has a receiver drafted in the first round led the league in receiving yards by a Canadian, in the remaining 7 seasons the top receiver was a second rounder 1 time (Durant), third rounder 1 time (Gittens), a fourth rounder 3 times (Sinopoli x 3), fifth rounder once (Getzlaf) and undrafted once (Bagg).

All this to say that while some 1st round WRs do end up being worth it, overall prioritizing drafting Canadian receivers may not be the most effective strategy.

This concludes this week's installment of insight and analysis that is most likely useless.

Monday Morning Sentimonies: O’Day Don’t Draft OL

We are heading into our third year where the primary topic of discussion when it comes to the Riders is the O-line… or lack thereof. A consistent question I have kept hearing over the years is “why does O’Day (an all-star lineman in his day) seem to struggle with that position above all else?” I will add a further element to the question… How does a former all-star o-lineman inherit one of the best OL in the CFL coming out of the 2018 season and turn it into a laughing stock in under 3 years? 

Obviously a lot goes into how well an O-line plays: coaching, health, play calling, whether your QB pre-turtles or spins left right into the pass rush repeatedly. Also some things happen outside of the GM’s control. Shepley going to the NFL and Cofield opting out after Covid set us back a lot and were not O’Day’s fault.

That said, the hypothesis I aim to prove this morning, is that O’Day's approach to drafting is a significant factor in how we got to where we are. As the title of this post implies, that hypothesis is that Jeremy O’Day Don’t Draft O-lineman… or at least, he does not believe that it is a priority. 

Here’s some stats to back my claim:

-        In 4 years as GM, he has drafted a total of 6 O-lineman. Of those, only 2 were drafted in the 1^st or 2^nd round (and thus far have combined for 0 starts and 1 game played)

-        In those same 4 years he has drafted 6 receivers. Of those, 4 were drafted in the 1^st or 2^nd round.

-        He has used exactly 1 of his 4 first round picks on an OL.

-        In half of his drafts he has not drafted an OL until the 5^th round.

Do these look like the actions of a GM who believes in making Canadian OL a priority? Or someone who thinks the secret to winning a Grey Cup is Canadian receievers? 

If you want a comparison point, over 3 drafts Chris Jones drafted 8 OL and used a 1^st or 2^nd round pick on an OL every year he was here. People will point to St John but he also brought in Bladek and Shepley (and hell, at least St John at least played football for us). 

Now, I could look individually at each draft and maybe rationalize each decision in isolation. In 2019 we had a stacked OL and a need at WR. In 2020 was a pretty thin OL class and we tried. 2021, Lokombo fit a need in terms of Canadian depth on defense. 2022 the best OL were gone by our 1^st round pick and we got a good one in round 2 (supposedly). But the issue is the sum of all these individual decisions. Over a 4 year period, O’Day has not made drafting OL a priority and it caught up with him in a big way.

If we look at the measuring bars of success Winnipeg (the best team in the West 3 years running) has used a 1^st round pick on OL twice as much as O’Day. Toronto (reigning champs) have done it 4 times as often. Yes that is not the sole determinant of a championship team but it certainly helps. Also, there are only 2 teams with less 1^st round OL picks than O’Day: BC and Montreal. Again OL is not the sole determinant but coincidentally those 2 teams have the longest Grey Cup appearance drought spanning more than a decade each.

 So if O’Day is serious about building a sustainably successful OL, then he needs to alter his approach to drafting and actually make it a priority. O’Day seems to be way more effective at drafting in the later rounds than the early round. His picks in the 4^th round or later have netted us Schaefer-Baker, Dabire and Dalke. Outside of Lenius his early round picks have thus far failed to make a noticeable impact. 

Will O’Day learn his lesson? We will see come the 2023 draft in May. Though based on his drafting history it would be a way safer bet to put money on another early round WR being drafted than an OL that will do anything for this franchise.

Monday Morning Sentimonies: Take A Look Around

The dust has pretty much settled on free agency. So this morning I thought I would take a look at how each team stacks up on paper at this point in the offseason. We will look at a strength and potential weakness heading into the season.

BC

Strength – BC was 3^rd in sacks. They didn’t really lose anyone from that D-line and could potentially add Steven Richardson to the mix, who missed all of last year due to injury.

Weakness – Pass protection stands out for me. BC allowed the 5^th least sacks but that stat is very skewed by who the starting QB was. They allowed 10 sacks in 10 Rourke games but 29 in 8 Adams games. At that pace had Adams played the full year they would have been 2^nd only to the Riders in sacks allowed. While they upgraded at centre with Couture they lost Joel Figueroa at tackle in the offseason.

Edmonton

Strength – Chris Jones year 2 is generally a good enough reason for me but while its just generally assumed the D will continue to improve, the Elks caught everyone’s attention with what they did on offense. Despite having stud rookies in RB Kevin Brown and WR Dilon Mitchell, they didn’t stand pat. They went out and got Geno Lewis, Steven Dunbar and Kyran Moore. That’s a lot of firepower if Cornelius can start playing with some consistency.

Weakness - Outside of the D-line (which is coming along nicely) I’m not convinced Jones has enough horses yet on D. They will certainly be better but the secondary really only has Purifoy and Grymes and the Linebackers aren’t super impressive. The D will certainly continue to improve under Jones but he may be one season away from the dominant D we typically associate with him.

Calgary

Strength – That is a damn good defense and I see no reason that won’t continue. You would think losing Ormiolade, Thurman and Banks would be an issue but they added Howsare, Vaughters and Awe to offset.

Weakness – I’m not sold on that passing attack. Their run game is scary but they were 7^th last year in passing and did nothing to address that. In theory you should be good with Begelton, Henry and Philpot but it didn’t work great last year and they also lost one of their tackles in Julian Good-Jones. They also have no one to fall back on if Maier falters.

Saskatchewan

Strength – Depth is a concern but assuming the starters are healthy the defense is shaping up nicely. Micah, Lanier and Robertson up front. Teitz, Dean and Moncrief at LB. Secondary has Marshall, Milligan and Clark. Plus we will have a damn good D-Coordinator in Shivers.

Weakness – Going to reserve judgement on OL but obviously that remains a giant question mark but even if we get that back to mildly competent I don’t think we have a bonafide #1 receiver. Pretty much every other team does. I think we have a lot of solid #2’s like Lenius, Wieneke and Bane. Schaefer-Baker is the only guy with the potential to step up into that #1 spot. But at this point there is no one that defenses have to game plan for specifically.

Winnipeg

Strength – Collaros + Lawler + Schoen + Bailey + Demski. Good luck defending that passing attack.

Weakness – Winnipeg is a team getting old quickly. Jefferson, Bighill, Jeffcoat, Bryant, Hardrick, Neufeld all are 32 or older. D-line was still good but amazingly second last in sacks and now they lost Casey Sayles who had 6 sacks last season. I still expect Winnipeg to be good but they are approaching the end of the window with this group. Just remains to be seen if they can squeeze one more year out.

Hamilton

Strength – Their D-line features Ja’Gared Davis, Casey Sayles, Dylan Wynn, Ted Laurent and Kwaku Boateng. Assuming Boateng is back to full health that’s an intimating front 4.

Weakness – I remain firm in my belief that Bo Levi Mitchell’s body can’t stand up to a full season. I expect him to look like a world beater for 4 games but then what? You are either rolling with a broken Mitchell or hoping Matt Schiltz can carry the load.

Toronto

Strength – Toronto does not have an OL older than 29. That group includes proven players like Ciraco, Hunter, Bladek and Allen. They are in an enviable position with the youth and depth they have there.

Weakness – Going to ignore the obvious (the unknown at QB) and go with pass defense. In 2022, they were the 2^nd worst against the pass. They lost their best DB in Jamal Peters to the NFL and didn’t add anything really. They have an impressive front 7 but that back end could continue to be an issue for them.

Montreal

Strength – Jason Maas. Haha just kidding. But he does have a significantly better OL at his disposal. Guys like Lawrence, Lestage, Rice, Matte and Jameison. Lots of question marks in Montreal but OL is in a pretty good place.

Weakness – Even if Jason Maas manages to get his offensive groove back and even if Fajardo can regain his form, I’m not sure who they are throwing to. Their best receiver is a 34 year old Ellingson (who hasn’t played a full season in a while) and then ?? Reggie White maybe. Lot of question marks with that offense. Their best asset is the running back and Jason Maas has no use for that.

Ottawa

Strength – You have to go back to 2018 to find a time Ottawa did not have exclusive possession of last place in the East. Is there hope of a change in fortune on the horizon? I’m not so sure. I honestly struggled with this. I think Bob Dyce will bring some much needed stability to the coaching there. But the closest thing I could find to a strength was the D-line led by Mauldin and Laing.

Weakness – While I expect a healthy Masoli to boost the O, I don’t hold out as much hope for the D. They allowed the most yards and 2^nd most points last season and I don’t see any offseason upgrades. I don’t see Santos-Knox and Brooks being the solution when their addition is offset by the loss of Pruneau and Williams.