Riders vs. Ti-Cats: Main Event Saturday

Saturday it’s the top team in the East vs. the top team in the West in a battle to determine who’s senior citizen QB reigns supreme. Two months ago we strolled into Hamilton and squeaked out an ugly win. I think both teams are much improved since then so all bets are off on where this one goes. 

The Riders are entering a key part of their season. The next 4 games (Ham, Cal, Win x2) will go a long way to determining where we sit in the standings come year end. Win 3 or 4 and first place is almost an inevitability. Go 2-2 and we are still sitting very solid. One win or less and we suddenly make things tenser than a post-lost Dinwiddie press conference. 

Bo Levi is making me eat a lot of crow. I loudly proclaimed he was done last seasons and doubled down this year by saying there was no way he could do it again. Even Bethel-Thompson thinks those were widely inaccurate. Bo has turned back the clock (maybe we should be testing him for banned substances). He leads the best O in the league with an amazing 21 TDs to just 3 INTs. They are 8^th in rushing so that is really an afterthought in this one. The Ti-Cats pose a big challenge in the pass game. Left unchecked Kenny Lawler will make it look like he's playing on Madden rookie mode. But as teams have found out the last few weeks, if you devote too much focus to Lawler, they can kill you will their other guys like Smith and White. We need a strong push from out front 4 to make Bo have to speed up his throws (and preferably spend some up close and personal time with the turf). I think we need to play our defense straight. Yes Lawler will likely go over 150 yards but I’d rather take my chances that Milligan can make plays on him one on one rather than leaving other WRs wide open. Last game Bo/Lawler put up a million passing yards but just 1 TD. I see a similar script coming.

 As good as Bo as been, unfortunately for Hamilton, he does not play defense. They are struggling there. 3rd most points allowed, 2^nd most yards, a league high 5.5 yards per rush allowed. They have been compensating with a ton of turnovers and strong play in the other 2 phases. This is a game where we need out O to show up ready to pounce. As of writing this Peters and Katsantonis have not practiced at all and are questionable. If that defense loses its best 2 players it goes from not great to extremely vulnerable real quick. Need a big game from Ouelette in this one facing a weak run D. Use the ran to set up passes to Myers and Johnson. Harris is completing a league high 68% of passes over 20 yards. He’s dialed in on those deep shots and I see Myers breaking at least one in this one. We need to show up right from kickoff. Facing an offense this potent we can’t sleep through the first quarter and fall behind. We should be rested and full of piss and vinegar (odd saying by the way) coming off a bye. Hamilton tends to mask the weakness of their D by making a ton of takeaways. We turn the ball over less than anyone else in the league. As long as that continues we should be putting points on the board.

We catch a break as the top returner in the league Wooden is hurt and will not dress. Speaking of special teams last time we played Hamilton Lauther wen 2/5 on kicks. God could we all use a good Lauther game. 

This will be a tough game. I have a feeling it being an afternoon game its going to be an emotional roller coaster that along with the heats leaves you completely drained by the end. But here are a few reasons I think we edge them out. All 3 of their losses have come against the West. They are 1-3 against west team not named Edmonton. This will be the biggest crowd of the year. The energy in the stadium should have the team rocking. They have a good offense and so do we. We have a good defense and they do not. If it comes down to which team gets the most stops you gotta like our chances. 

It'll be like a 35-33 game that ends with Harris leading a drive with under 60 seconds leading to a 48 yard Lauther attempt than no one feels confident about. Please position the defibrillator close to my zone as I will need it.

Monday Morning Sentimonies: Are We Better?

Welcome back from the bye week.

The question posed in the title of this post seems like it has a pretty obvious answer… Yes. Yes, this team is better than it was at this point in 2024. Its so obvious even CFL Command Centre couldn’t get it wrong (maybe). I mean we could go 3-7 to end the season and still have a better record than 2024. But I always like to dig a bit deeper into things. Wins can hide underlying issues. While the signs started showing up in year 2, we did not realize that Craig Dickenson was in free fall until it was much too late.  So let’s take a look at how the stats compare to this time last year.

 

	2024	2025	Difference
Wins	5	7	+2
Offensive Pts	195	215	+20
Offensive Tds	19	21	+2
Pass yds	2172	2353	+181
Rush Yds	718	884	+166
Sacks Allowed	19	10	-9
Giveaways	11	11	0
Big Plays	14	29	+15
Def Pts Allowed	194	174	-20
Def Tds Allowed	18	19	+1
Pass yds allowed	2490	2453	-37
Rush yds allowed	611	527	-84
Sacks	17	22	+5
Takeaways	22	17	-5
Big plays allowed	18	15	-3
Penalty Yds	568	665	+97

 At first glance everything looks pretty good. We are showing improvement across all but a couple categories. 

Offensively a couple things stand out. Scoring and yardage are up slightly but I think that is mainly due to Trevor Harris playing more games this season. But giving up 9 less sacks definitely jumps out. 10 total sacks is just objectively a great number. But consider the context. We lost McEwen and Gagnon before the first preseason game. We have since lost Tate and Johnson. That is 4 starting caliber players, 3 of them Canadian. That would normally be crippling. Hell, it was not that long ago that our starters we allowing exponentially more sacks that these depth guys are. The other thing that really caught my eye was that the number of big plays (30+ passing, 20+ rushing) has doubled. You see this clearly in the pass game. Guys like Myers are powering our deep game and that is making a difference. 

Defensively while 5 less takeaways might seem like a negative, in the larger context it tells a positive story. We are getting less takeaways than last year, but also allowing less points. That means we are less reliant on takeaways and more solid overall. We are also doing a better job of not letting opponents drive into FG range. We have actually allowed more TDs the season but less point overall. 

Two other things that don’t show in there that I think are important:

-        Last year we had a .500 record on the road at this point. This year we are undefeated on the road. The strength and resiliency to win on the road is a very positive thing.

-        Depth. Last year when Harris got hurt we did not win very much. Fortunately its only happened once this year but we won. We are down many starting OL as previously mentioned. We are down many starting WR. The guys who have been called to step in aren’t just surviving.. they are thriving. Real credit to O’Day and his scouting staff. 

This next 4 weeks is a critical and very difficult part of the season. We play Hamilton, Calgary and Winnipeg twice. If we go 2-2 in those games we are in great position in terms of looking to lock up a home playoff game. The way this team is playing 2-2 seems pretty realistic.

Monday Morning Sentimonies: Leaving No Doubt

Riders 34 – Als 6

That was what I believe the French refer to as le ass kicking. The Riders rolled in Montreal, made up for years of futility and laid an absolute beat down on the Alouettes. Start to finish, every aspect, the Riders were the better team and it was not even close. Even when he Riders messed up and say, contacted the kicker, it ended up working out in their favour. 

We should have destroyed the Als. They were missing their QB, top 2 receivers, kick returner, best DB and their starting safety was our of the game early. This was a depleted Als roster that even despite all our injuries we were better than. But week after week we have seen inconsistency from the Riders. We have started slow or we have failed to show any killer instinct and make the end of game sway close then it had any business being. Not this one. We opened with a massive kick return, when on a 7+ minute drive for a TD and never let the Als in the game at any point. 

I know MBT is not great but our defense did not let the Als get past our 45 yard line at any point in the game! That is dominance. D-line continued their strong play. Shane Ray has sure made himself noticeable in the past couple weeks. Run game was shut down. Even our famously soft pass coverage allowed nothing. You know its great performance when the closest thing there is to a criticism of the D is that Lokombo managed to embarrassingly drop a gift of an INT. Like it looked like Make a Wish foundation had placed some terminally ill child at safety and MBT was granting his wish of getting an INT… except a terminally ill child would likely have caught that. 

Offense looked sharp. Harris came out firing. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that our offense works better when Myers is a focal point. Good things happens when we target that man. He had massive games in BC and Montreal when we prioritized getting him involved. Last week the offense struggled and he was an afterthought. Gotta love a guy like Tommy Nield stepping up and making plays when he gets his chance. You find me another team that could have Baker, Emilus and Bane all sitting on the IR and be thriving with the next men up. Ouellette’s stats won’t jump off the page but he provided consistent hard-earned runs. Hell, even Anderson looked great when he got the ball. 

While everything was going right for the Riders, it was not a banner night for Glen Suitor… even by his low standards. He kept harping on how the Als only dressed 5 D-lineman (they dressed 6). He raved about MBT’s arm strength (the man has yet to complete a pass over 20 yards at any point this season) and talked about how Tommy Stevens never misses on 1 yard  plunges (he was immediately corrected by Dustin Neilson). Yet another job I think a Make a Wish kid would do better at. 

The win leaves the Riders at 7-1 and firmly in control of 1^st place in the west. They move to 4-0 on the road (with wins over both the top teams in the East). They head into a well earned by riding a wave of momentum. Even an eternal pessimist like me is starting to believe that there is something special about this group. 

Other random thoughts:

-        Montreal’s kicker has been in the league since 2019. How does he suddenly just now start adding to his name? Does he have some weird clause in his contract that grants him a new name for breaking team FG records? HE's been Maltos for 6 years. You telling me he just forgot to mention that people were omitting the Diaz part?

-        On that note, why does Maltos where his uniform in a way that makes it look like he’s wearing short shorts?

 

-        When you know in advance that Montreal is a challenging a play under automatic review, why on earth would you not just do it all at once?

Riders vs. Alouettes: Super Samedi

The Riders and Alouettes face off on Saturday. While both teams find themselves in the upper echelons of the CFL standings, both have left a pile of bodies in the path to get there. The Als are down a QB and most of their receives. The Riders continue to need to sacrifice multiple players in exchange for a win. Add Korte-Moore, Miller and re-add Emilus to the injured list which just continues to grow.

I had this game penciled in as a loss from the day the schedule came out. Good things don’t happen in Montreal… well at least they don’t happen at the football stadium, maybe at some of the local “scenery”, but not on the field. We have lost our last 3 games in Montreal. We haven’t scored more than 19 points in Montreal since 2018. Add in the fact that a bye week awaits and you have the makings of a dud game. 

But I will tell you that watching Bethel-Thompson can sure change ones confidence level. Particularly when he’s running out of guys to throw the ball to. Montreal is 4-0 with Alexander under centre. They are 1-2 with MBT and to get that one victory it took the opposing QB getting hurt for them to barely squeak it out. He produced one TD in that win while his kicker notched 5 FGs. To put it mildly the Als are far less intimidating with MBT. 

Certainly not a team we can take lightly though. That defense is solid. #2 in points allowed, #1 in yards allowed, #2 run D, #2 in sacks. Noel Thorpe is once gain leading a top end D. Given that we are fresh off struggling against the worst defense in the league and are once again without Emilus, I would recommend betting the under on this one. We need to try to get Ouelette established in the run. By that I don’t just mean run him up the middle 5 times and give up when he doesn’t bust one. Some semblance of a run game will help give Harris some room to operate in the pass game. Maybe he can remember in this one who Myers is. Pass game will need to run through Myers and Johnson. Robustelli should be good for a token long sideline pass. Key will be not turning the ball over. This should be a tight, low scoring game. Team that makes the least mistake will likely emerge on top. As much as we may have criticism of the O, even when they struggle they do move the ball… eventually. We are 2^nd in offensive points and yards. The last 2 trips to Montreal we were reduced to starting Shae Patterson and Fine/Dolegala. Harris should give us a solid chance in this. 

Defense will need to carry us though. D-line won’t have a free pass to the QB like we did against Edmonton but we still need them to generate pressure. We have the #1 run D and nothing about Montreal’s run games scares me. But we also have the worst pass D. Montreal is 6^th in yards but 3^rd in point… though the vast majority of their points are FGs (most in the league). MBT will make mistakes as long as we stay assignment sound (I’m looking at you Fields). Want a fun stat? MBT is 0/13 on passes over 20 yards… 0! He lives on short/intermediate passes. Unfortunately we live on giving up those exact plays. I expect our D to give up a lot of drives but those drives will end in FGs or punts. In his 3 starts MBT has been sacked 6 times. As per usual we’ll give up yards but balance things out with sacks and picks. 

As I said at the outset, I just assumed this one as a loss months ago. But the more I dig into Montreal, the more I think we can (dare I say should) beat them. Here’s Montreal’s season:

-        Beat Toronto who had a backup QB

-        Beat lowly Ottawa who had a back-up QB

-        Beat lowly Edmonton

-        Lost to Hamilton

-        Lost to BC

-        Barely beat Toronto who had a backup QB

-        Barely beat the Stamps without VA 

They are 1-2 against teams with winning records (and the 1 is the Stamps without VA). They have defeated exactly one starting QB… though I’m sketchy on whether to classify Ford as a starting QB. They won’t be a pushover, but I’m not sure they are as good as their 5-2 record suggests. 

I think Trevor Harris can lead us to victory. That said, I am defaulting to my “we suck in Montreal” stance compounded by injuries. 

Lauther misses a couple FGs and we end up losing what looks at first like a winnable game. Bye week is much needed here.

Monday Morning Sentimonies: Limping Into First

Riders 21 – Elks 18

You kind of have to feel for Cody Fajardo. He gets absolutely battered in Saskatchewan behind a terrible OL, finally gets a chance for glory on a better team, is promptly traded to a terrible team and once again finds himself on the Mosaic tuft getting assaulted by opposing D-linemen that Brett Boyko has no ability to block. For a nice guy, the universe does seem to hate him. 

I am pretty sure that Fajardo was the only person who enjoyed that game less than those forced to watch it. That was a whole lot of bad football. Not super surprising to see that coming from the Elks but man o man did we seem determined to unite in solidarity with them on a quest for futility. We tried really hard to lose that game and fortunately faced a team that was so bad it could not even take advantage. 

Let’s start with the D-line. The lone bright spot and the only reason we won that game. They assaulted that Edmonton OL and made life miserable for Fajardo. There were plays where the edge rusher had a legitimate chance of getting to Cody before the snap. 8 sacks, 6 of which came from the front 4… and even the other 2 were caused by the front 4 and linebackers were just the beneficiaries of finishing things off. Defense as a whole did their jobs. We completely shut down any semblance of a run game and held the Elks to 4 points through 3 quarters of play. The issue was how soft they suddenly got in the 4^th. Now in fairness to them they were probably exhausted from having to carrying the weight of the entire team as the offense was being about as useful as the doctor that diagnosed Collaros with a “neck injury”. But the glaring liabilities of this team were once again on display. Fields has talent and on about half the plays does a great job. On the other half he is getting picked on and exposed by the opposition because he struggles in coverage. That first TD to Julien-Grant he chose to cover no one and then in his haste at trying to make up for his lazy coverage took a terrible angle eliminating any chance of a tackle. I also still have no clue what Lokombo does. If it’s a run or a pass under 10 yards he’s fine. But any pass over 10 yards and the man is invisible or only visible exactly 3 seconds too late. 

But while the defense had some issues, they more than pulled their weight in this one. The offense… well the are starting to remind me a lot of Brett Lauther. We know they can play at a high level and they are lethal when they are on… but game to game, quarter to quarter you have no confidence in whether they will actually show up. In this one the O chose to take the first and 4^th quarter off. It was the fourth time this season they had 3 points or less in the first quarter and the fourth time this season they failed to score a point in the fourth quarter (including each of the last 3 weeks). That is simply not sustainable. As expected, Emilus was a lot more involved and was one of the lone offensive bright spots… at least until he got hurt on a really dumb screen call (hopefully its not a long-term thing). After absolutely ripping BC a new one last week we logically decided to make Myers a complete afterthought. The talent and the firepower are there on O but it shows up so sporadically. This was the worst defense in the CFL. Unfortunately the old Rider habit of playing down to our competition was on full display. 

I won’t lie I put the odds of Lauther making that 51 yard FG after missing his first one about on par with the Elks selling out a home playoff game in 2025. Glad to see he recovered and made everything after the miss but how much longer can we just accept his constant struggles without at least bringing someone into practice to compete with him? Also on special teams, Drae McCrae sure tried really hard to give the ball to the Elks. He fumbled 3 times once he recovered, once he was barely saved by the ball going out of bounds, once he was saved by a no yards penalty. Since we clearly had no intention of using Myers on offense we should have at least let him return. That or inject Alford with steroids to literally make him Super Mario.  

While the preceding paragraphs may seem very negative I do want to stress that in spite of all the areas we struggled in we managed to battle through and emerge with a victory. In the process we vaulted ourselves into sole possession of first place. Frustrating as it may have been to watch, when you can win despite not playing your best football that is a great sign. Look around the West division, the Elks clearly don’t have enough talent to compete, the Bombers are about to face the consequences of letting Collaros try and sweep another concussion under the rug, VA is hurt and we hung 70 points on BC in two games. All things considered I'll take our situation. We are far from consistent and the need to sacrifice a player to the injury list for every win is getting concerning but through 8 weeks we have battled our way to the top of the pack. Ultimately winning is the only stat that matters… though seeing Cody get plastered to the turf 8 times in an opposing jersey is a pretty close second.

Other random thoughts:

-        I’ll give the Riders credit for at least trying something new for once but Christmas in July was not great. I think it could work for a Saturday or Sunday afternoon game but it just sucked all the energy out of what should have been a rowdy Friday night. Tough to get pumped up for Christmas music.

-        The light show thing was insanely cool. I hope that returns for the lights out game.

-        Dan Clark filling in as game day host was something. He clearly had first day jitters as it was painfully obvious anything he said had to be read verbatim from his clipboard. I did find it hilarious how obvious it was that the contestant was reading the answer directly of the clipboard in the “Where in Saskatchewan is Gainer" segment.

-        If you want a vastly superior “Where in Saskatchewan” segment check out my Twitter @RiderProphet

-        I can’t believe the refs finally called a penalty for Harris getting hit in the head.

-        The Riders are missing a golden opportunity to allow live betting on those halftime dog races.

Riders vs. Elks: Cody Plays

From guy we were not sure was even worthy of being a back-up, to beloved Jesus sprinkling corndog eater, to scapegoat of a failed coaching regime. Fajardo has seen the highs and lows in Saskatchewan. One thing he has never seen is the field as an opponent. It took 3 years but Friday it finally happens. 

Edmonton turns to Fajardo desperate for some sort of offensive spark. Its been another bad year in Edmonton. 1-4 with their only win coming against the team vying with them for title of worst in the CFL. Their offense has been non-existent. Dead last in yards gained, 2^nd last in point scored. 43% of their drives are 2 and outs… 43%!!!! Here is a list of Ford’s that could run an offense at least as effectively as Tre has this season: Tyrell, Doug, Jaxson when he still had a cast and Harrisson. The good news for Fajardo is that the bar is set so low than even the slightest success will make him a hero in Edmonton. 

Fajardo does improve the Elks under centre. The issue is that he does not improve their receivers. With guys like Gittens, Julien-Grant and Dunbar they have a wealth of #2 and 3 receivers… but no #1. By far the weakest set of WRs in the CFL. Led by Rankin (and I assume a decent dose of Fajardo) the Elks have a decent run game. Focus needs to be on shutting that down. I may eat these words but Fajardo with a B-list group of receivers beating us through the air is a risk I am willing to take. We need pressure up front. We want our line to make happy feet Cody appear. The one who won’t step up into the pocket. The one who spins left like its an unstoppable surprise play. That said, at least once I fully expect Carney to get absolutely embarrassed by a left spin as he cheats inside. Last week we shut down Nathan Rourke…a better QB, with better receivers. As long as Cody is uncomfortable in the pocket there will be turnovers and stalled drives. And if a pass happens to bounce off a crossbar, well that would be a delightful bonus.  

Sadly for the Elks, Fajardo also does not improve their defense. In fairness to that group, being shackled with an offense that couldn’t gain a first down if you put them at 2^nd and inches and pushed them forward does not help. Its tough to find a defensive stat that they aren’t the worst at: most TDs allowed (despite playing the least amount of games so far), most points allowed (have yet to hold a team under 31), most yards, least sacks, least takeaways. The best thing I can say about them is that they do not have the worst run D… they have the second worst run D. They have playmakers like Ford, Morgan, Ceresna and Barlow but overall that D is not great. Only thing I do not like going into this game is starting our 5^th different combination on the O-Line in 7 games. This time we lost Fry to a god damn car accident. At this rate it would not surprise me for OL to start dropping off for the same reasons Mr. Burns’ softball team did: Radiation poisoning, helping some lady get things out of a burning house, gigantism. Feed Ouelette to keep us in 2^nd and manageable and then let Harris go to work. Other than Ford not much scares me about that secondary. Look for Emilus to play a bigger role in his second game back. 

In terms of special teams, we all have horrible flashbacks on what Javon Leake can do so we need to not let that be a factor that swings momentum. Lauther is on schedule for an absolute stinker of a game after a perfect game in BC.

On paper there is zero reason the Rider should not absolutely pound the Elks. But we have all been Rider fans long enough to just know that this one will be an absolute nail biter even though it shouldn’t be. 

I grew up in a time where Friday night games and good Rider teams were few and far between… getting both at the same time was as unlikely on the prairies as adopting daylight savings time. Well we have a winning team and a game under the Friday night lights. Let’s get loud! 

Riders by a Johnson TD… most likely KeeSean but if it happens to be Miach I’m taking credit too.