Okay
so we’ve established that when it comes to playing on the road, we are as
useful as the photo radar cameras on Ring Road with the faulty batteries. Or
Aaron Rogers’ achilles (pick your preferred loosely topical simile). But that’s next
week’s problem. For now we are back home. How much of a difference does that
make? On the road we are 2-4 and score an average of 14 points per game. At
home, we are 4-2 and score an average of 27 points per game. Now its worth
noting that of our 4 home wins we have won by margins of 1, 2 5 and 2. So we
don’t exactly dominate at home but we definitely play much better and seem to
find ways to eke out victories while taking years off my life. Why the last
time the Elks visited Mosaic, we won because Edmonton conceded a game winning
kick single. Watched a ton of Rider games, that was a new one even for me.
But
the thing is, this is a very different team this time around. For reasons no
one can explain, Tre Ford sat doing nothing while the Elks when 0-8. I’m not a
football coach, but I would have to assume there was some evidence that Ford
was a superior QB to Cornelius and Doege. Then again their offensive resurgence
did coincide with McAdoo being removed as OC… just saying.
A
look at the stats and standings might tell you this is a game the Riders should
win easily. But you really have to ignore the stats from the first 8 games and
look at what the Elks have done with Ford at the helm:
-
3-2
record (same as the Riders over that stretch)
-
26.4
offensive points per game (would be 3rd in the CFL)
-
395.8
offensive yards per game (would be 2nd in the CFL)
-
16
TDs in 5 games with Ford, vs. just 11 in the previous 8 games
-
7
sacks allowed on Ford, vs. 22 in the previous 8 games
-
9
turnovers vs. 22 in the previous 8 games
-
As
many 30+ yard completions from Ford as all previous 8 games
-
D
is allowing 25.2 points per game (would be 5th in the CFL)
-
Before
Ford, RB Kevin Brown was averaging 4.7 yards per carry, now… 5.9
If
you think you can take this team lightly based on its record then you are
likely qualified to help design the coaching game plan for the next Riders’
road game.
Ford
is legit. He’s still got some flaws to his game but a couple stats jump out at
me. 23% of his drives end in TDs. That is 3rd only to Collaros and
Kelly. He completes 57% of his deep balls. That’s 10% more than Collaros (you
may recall how Collaros recently shredded our secondary). He’s also insanely
fast and about as easy to bring down as the greased up deaf guy on Family Guy.
How bad did this guy have to be in practice for no one in on that Elks coaching
staff to think maybe he might not be a craptastic as Cornelius? Did he forget
to send Jones a Christmas card? Or sleep with his mother?
Defense
needs a rebound game. Getting Robertson back is timely because it starts up
front. Not likely to get a lot of sacks and you almost need to slow rush Ford.
You want to hurry his throws but if you come in too aggressively he will use
his speed to blow by you. Controlled rush that aims to keep him contained. I
don’t want to see any of those stupid stunts or overload formations we saw in
Winnipeg. Play nice simple contain and plug those gaps. We also need to slow
down Kevin Brown. He’s going to be running angry so we need to hit back
angrier. Also, we need to be mindful that the Elks don’t care and are trying
everything no matter how crazy. AC Leonard has a TD. Kyran Moore has thrown for
one. Weird stuff is going to happen and I’m not just talking about awkward
urinal conversations when I use the bathroom. Secondary needs to be assignment
sounds… not whatever the hell they were doing last week. Not exactly helping my
confidence to have Williams out with injury (secondary struggled even with our starters)
but at least Trumaine Washington has CFL experience. Keep it in front of you,
don’t give up deep shots.
Offense
should be well rested for this one since they quit playing after the first
drive in Winnipeg. Never thought I’d say this, but I’m glad Evan Johnson is
back. Big O-line news is that Blake will suit up for the first time this
season. He’s a versatile and reliable vet that we desperately need. Still not
sure whether he’s backing up just to ease him in, or whether he’s just listed as
a backup and will play. Either way I am glad to see him. With guys like Ceresna
and Leonard, Edmonton will be bringing the pressure. We need to not let Jake
get killed. Speaking of Jake be nice if we could see more of the guy that had
people planning for his eventual induction to the Plaza of Honour and less like
a guy Chris Jones would have put ahead of Tre Ford on the depth chart. As much
as I think our D will have a bounce back game, with Ford running the O, the
Elks are gonna score. We ain’t winning 13-12 this time around. Offense has gotta
find that endzone. We tried emphasizing getting Baker going last game and I’d
like to see that continue. We don’t need to force it because Emilus, Bane and
Jones are capable of spreading the load but we are going to need to establish
“the guy” going down the stretch. We still don’t have one and Baker needs to be
that guy. Edmonton has the worst run D in the league so that would be a good
place to start our attack. Morrow needs a heavy workload and if we want to
establish ourselves as the more physical team I would even give Betrand-Hudon
some early carries, dude is a north-south freight train.
Some
people are saying if we don’t win big then we are in trouble. I honestly don’t
care how we win. A one point win that is uglier than a porta potty at Craven is
fine by me. May I remind you that we have never won a game by more than 5
points this season. I doubt we are about to start now. We only lose by wide margins, wins
come narrowly. Just win, beggars can’t be choosers.
I
want to see us come out with the same energy we saw in the BC game after the
last embarrassing road loss. Be more physical. Don’t make mistakes. Start hot
so Edmonton has to play chase.
Could
Edmonton beat us? Yup. Will they? I don’t see it. Home game, we get some bodies
back we didn’t have in Winnipeg and its not exactly like Edmonton is great on
the road. Just 1 win on the road and they have scored a total of just 87 road
points… for comparison we go out of our way to lose badly on the road and have
86 road points.
Riders
by a Dean Faithful missed FG that Alford has to run out of the endzone to
preserve the victory… because, that’s about how the season has gone.
Get
loud Rider Fans… if we are too quiet the team might mistake it for a road game.