Riders vs. Alouettes: Super Samedi

The Riders and Alouettes face off on Saturday. While both teams find themselves in the upper echelons of the CFL standings, both have left a pile of bodies in the path to get there. The Als are down a QB and most of their receives. The Riders continue to need to sacrifice multiple players in exchange for a win. Add Korte-Moore, Miller and re-add Emilus to the injured list which just continues to grow.

I had this game penciled in as a loss from the day the schedule came out. Good things don’t happen in Montreal… well at least they don’t happen at the football stadium, maybe at some of the local “scenery”, but not on the field. We have lost our last 3 games in Montreal. We haven’t scored more than 19 points in Montreal since 2018. Add in the fact that a bye week awaits and you have the makings of a dud game. 

But I will tell you that watching Bethel-Thompson can sure change ones confidence level. Particularly when he’s running out of guys to throw the ball to. Montreal is 4-0 with Alexander under centre. They are 1-2 with MBT and to get that one victory it took the opposing QB getting hurt for them to barely squeak it out. He produced one TD in that win while his kicker notched 5 FGs. To put it mildly the Als are far less intimidating with MBT. 

Certainly not a team we can take lightly though. That defense is solid. #2 in points allowed, #1 in yards allowed, #2 run D, #2 in sacks. Noel Thorpe is once gain leading a top end D. Given that we are fresh off struggling against the worst defense in the league and are once again without Emilus, I would recommend betting the under on this one. We need to try to get Ouelette established in the run. By that I don’t just mean run him up the middle 5 times and give up when he doesn’t bust one. Some semblance of a run game will help give Harris some room to operate in the pass game. Maybe he can remember in this one who Myers is. Pass game will need to run through Myers and Johnson. Robustelli should be good for a token long sideline pass. Key will be not turning the ball over. This should be a tight, low scoring game. Team that makes the least mistake will likely emerge on top. As much as we may have criticism of the O, even when they struggle they do move the ball… eventually. We are 2^nd in offensive points and yards. The last 2 trips to Montreal we were reduced to starting Shae Patterson and Fine/Dolegala. Harris should give us a solid chance in this. 

Defense will need to carry us though. D-line won’t have a free pass to the QB like we did against Edmonton but we still need them to generate pressure. We have the #1 run D and nothing about Montreal’s run games scares me. But we also have the worst pass D. Montreal is 6^th in yards but 3^rd in point… though the vast majority of their points are FGs (most in the league). MBT will make mistakes as long as we stay assignment sound (I’m looking at you Fields). Want a fun stat? MBT is 0/13 on passes over 20 yards… 0! He lives on short/intermediate passes. Unfortunately we live on giving up those exact plays. I expect our D to give up a lot of drives but those drives will end in FGs or punts. In his 3 starts MBT has been sacked 6 times. As per usual we’ll give up yards but balance things out with sacks and picks. 

As I said at the outset, I just assumed this one as a loss months ago. But the more I dig into Montreal, the more I think we can (dare I say should) beat them. Here’s Montreal’s season:

-        Beat Toronto who had a backup QB

-        Beat lowly Ottawa who had a back-up QB

-        Beat lowly Edmonton

-        Lost to Hamilton

-        Lost to BC

-        Barely beat Toronto who had a backup QB

-        Barely beat the Stamps without VA 

They are 1-2 against teams with winning records (and the 1 is the Stamps without VA). They have defeated exactly one starting QB… though I’m sketchy on whether to classify Ford as a starting QB. They won’t be a pushover, but I’m not sure they are as good as their 5-2 record suggests. 

I think Trevor Harris can lead us to victory. That said, I am defaulting to my “we suck in Montreal” stance compounded by injuries. 

Lauther misses a couple FGs and we end up losing what looks at first like a winnable game. Bye week is much needed here.