Riders vs. Eskimos: West-Semi Final

Sunday the Riders will attempt to take the first step in defending their Grey Cup championship when they travel to Edmonton to battle the 2^nd place Eskimos. All the successes and struggles of the previous 18 games don’t mean a damn thing anymore. It all comes down to 1 game.

At the beginning of the year I bet more than a few people predicted that the Riders and Esks would face off in the WSF… however I’m certain no one thought it would feature the epic QB battle of Nichols vs. Joseph.  Speaking of things I didn’t expect, how about the fact that headed into this game the Rider QB situation is not the hottest topic. Chances of Durant starting were always remote and I personally didn’t think it would happen so we’ve known for a while that Joseph would be our guy. As for Edmonton… they are just trying to find a healthy QB. Rumours have been swirling since Reilly got hurt 2 games ago that he had a broken bone in is foot. Turns out they were true as Matt Nichols has been named the starter, though its being said that Reilly could be available in an emergency situation (aka if Nichols sucks so bad that a cripple is deemed an upgrade). Complicating things for the Esks is that 3^rd stringer Pat White has a concussion and is questionable. That means the Esks are one bad hit on Nicols away from having to choose between crippled Reilly, newbie Matt Scott or newly acquired Justin Goltz (you know, the guy who adjusts his tie while celebrating TDs despite being down a ton of points).

While I don’t believe that the loss of Reilly suddenly makes the Riders the favourites (have you seen us play over the past 2 months?), I do believe this is a significant blow the Esks. Reilly’s mobility is an x-factor in that offense. It’s torched us before.  It’s a nightmare for defenders and opens up the running game and passing game. Nichols is nowhere near the running threat and that will allow our defender to focus more on stopping John White and rushing the passer. Nichols is a decent QB but nowhere near the passer Reilly is either. Also factor in that they like to insert Pat White with the odd running play and the end result will be a significantly different playbook for the Esks than usual.

Despite my less than glowing endorsements of Nichols, he is still a competent QB and able to do the 2 biggest drivers of that Esk offense. #1 he can hand off to John White who is a dangerous and talented RB (and like Reilly he has torched us before). #2 Nichols can also throw short high % passes to Bowman. The Esks do that a lot to get the ball in the hands of Bowman and let him get YAC yards, which he is good at, always has been. So Nichols is a downgrade but I’m under no illusion that the Esk offense will suddenly be rendered useless just by his presence. Defensively our success hinges on our ability to limit John White. We did an alright job of that when we met in October and we had a chance to win that game. Conversely you can’t even call what happened in our first meeting an attempt to stop him and we lost badly. If we can force Nichols to throw then he is going to get harassed by our D-line and our secondary will be more than up to the challenge of stopping him. Look for the Esks to try and get Kendial Lawrence involve on some short misdirection stuff to help keep pressure off Nichols. Also, if there was ever a guy I would worry about a postseason breakout game, its Fred Stamps… guy is simply too good to have this quiet a season. We have yet to allow the Esks to get more than 24 points and I bet we hold them to a max of 3 TDs this game too. White will get some plays but I expect our defense to come out fired up and give Nichols all kinds of trouble.

Offensively, we will be turning back the clock and hoping old man Joseph has one more miracle playoff run in him. He faces an imposing foe in that Eskimo defense though… #1 against the pass, #2 against the run, least points allowed, most INTs. Let’s not over think this. We have been the most successful when we run the ball so let’s give them a heavy dose of Allen and whichever of Messam or the Space Cowboy make the roster.  A big key will be our O-line. Assuming Best plays, it will be the first time since Game 8 and only the 7^th time this season that all 5 starters play together.  We expected a lot from them this year but injuries and inconsistent play have plagued them. A strong performance Sunday will make us forget about how the regular season went. Unless, Chris Jones suffers an acquired brain injury he will be expecting us to run and likely key up the D to stop it. While we can’t be scared to run, we need to be able to do other things in order to keep the chains moving.  Dressler and Getzlaf will need to step up and lead the way in the passing game but unless we spread it around to the likes of Bagg and Williams we are not going to be very effective. Also Joseph is going to need to use his legs. We don’t need him to duplicate what Durant did last year and literally carry the team (mostly because at this age that workload would probably kill him) but if he can mix in the odd run it will help open the running game up and give him more time to pass. We will need contributions from everyone on offense if we are going to beat a defense this talented. Spread it around and be smart with the ball. Each turnover dramatically decreases our odds of victory.

Also we really need to get better production in the second half. 0, 6 and 8… that’s how many second half points we’ve generated this season against the Esks. That simply won’t cut it. This is going to be a knock down drag out fight… we need to fight like hell until the very last second expires, no letting up and trying to coast to the end.

People have been talking about the concern about Milo’s reliability and it’s valid but Hugh O’Neil does not exactly instill confidence on the other side so at best that match-up is a wash and I still give Milo the edge (not that that’s saying much).

The paper match-up in this game is close with the edge likely going to the Esks. The one thing that I think will be a big difference is playoff experience. Our locker room is full of guys with playoff experience who know how to win. The Esks don’t have many guys with that experience. That “heart” factor can be a big difference maker come playoff time.

Maybe I’m picking with my heart but…

Riders 3

Monday Morning Sentimonies: A Win

Riders 24 - Esks 17

I don't care that it was in a relatively meaningless game. I don't care that it was against a team that was resting most of their best players. I don't care that it wasn't even that great of a game. We won! Finally. And the least the team could do for those of use who braved the cold was send us home happy.

I won't get too much into breaking down the game as it was a glorified preseason game and has has next to no bearing on next week's match-up. Both teams knew it and played accordingly. That said I will give the Riders credit because you could tell they wanted it. They had that care factor and that was good to see. It started right in the pregame when we went nose to nose with some of the Esks. If they could get amped up for this game then odds are good we will see that intensity 10 fold next week.

Here are my random thoughts on the game:
- That certainly wasn't Joseph's best performance. But while he wasn't lighting it up in the passing game as the past couple weeks, he did protect the football and even showed he could use his legs. On that run I think we all had that momentary hope that we were seeing LDC '07 being replayed... before remembering that was 7 years ago and not happening now.

- We balanced off a weak passing game by rediscovering a powerful run game. Allen was in vintage form (he even fumbled). The Space Cowboy also added another dimension to our ground attack (if you don't get that reference for goodness sake Google Steve Miller). I wonder if he did enough to earn a roster spot next week?

- Tino Sunseri reinforced his reputation as a completely different QB coming off the bench. Too bad he got hurt because I wanted to see how he would do with a chance to play again. That pass to Bagg looked good (especially Bagg's effort to secure it)

- I think we were all shocked when Doege didn't throw a pick when he entered the game.

- O-line looked good especially in the run game. Adding back Best should even further improve that.

- If we can continue getting Korey Williams involved in our O, it will add production and open things up for the others.

-  I'm not sure how much truth there is to the rumour that Mike Reilly has a broken bone in his leg but they sure kept Nichols for a ton of reps. Maybe it was just precautionary but either way concern has to be growing.

- Our pass D was soft but remember that Maze and Brown were out and Brack didn't play the whole game. Marshay Green is nowhere close to Maze in terms of covergae ability

- For F^%& sakes Milo! What the hell!?!? I still don't get how he missed that! Headed into the playoffs I have as much confidence in our kicker as I did in '10 when Warren Keane was thrust into action.

And thus concludes another regular season. We are now off to Edmonton for the WSF. I'll be back Friday to preview that match-up

Why not bet against your own team?

Betting on a neutral game is one thing. If you’ve spent a lifetime watching the game, and if you’ve invested tens of hours in studying the form in forensic detail, and if someone is offering to double your money…. Then you would be mad not to take their cash.

That’s the dispassionate scenario. Where it gets more complicated is when you consider betting on a game where you have an emotional stake. That’s not the same thing at all. When you’re betting on a game in which your team is playing ‘dispassionate’ is just about the last word that we should be using.

 Thinking about the team you support is as much emotional as rational. It might feel as though you are being fair minded, objective and clinical but you’re not. If you can be all of those things and still think about your team’s chances in a game, then you should seriously think about how much of a fan you really are.

The two ideas do not even belong in the same brain. That’s why you should never back your own team. Besides which, if winning is not enough of a buzz for you in and of itself - again - you should go and do some serious thinking. 

And when you’ve done all that thinking you should hand back your merchandise and go and spend the weekends out in the woods on your own somewhere.

Ok. So that’s why not to back your own team. But there is still an elephant in the stadium. What about backing your team to lose?

You’ve spent a lifetime watching, you’ve invested hours in studying the form, and you know - as sure as God made little green $20 bills - that there is no way they’re going to win. What about softening the pain of defeat - taking some recompense for your misery? How else will you feel good about drowning your sorrows unless someone else is going to pay for it?

This is a much more serious question.

Obviously at an ethical level it is wrong. It’s not wrong like finding your best mate’s girlfriend attractive; it’s probably more akin to being attracted to your best mate. Conventionally speaking, it’s just not the way things ordinarily to go. 

And that’s why emotions aren’t to be trusted. 

Look, we’re all grown-ups here. And this isn’t the dark ages. If you want to bet against your own team, then odds are you’ve probably got a very good reason for doing so. If your cold, clinical calculations come up with an answer that is more persuasive than your own died in the wool prejudice, then maybe you should take that as a sign of their merit. 

Betting against your own team is not a crime - not if no-one finds out anyway. But it is an act that will see you cross a line. If you’re prepared to make that journey, then you deserve every penny you win. It’s a brave move. Good luck to you.

Of course, the down side is that you do run the risk of becoming a sad, friendless and penniless loser. As they say, you pay your money and you take your rational, dispassionate and objective choice.

Riders vs. Eskimos: Regular Season Finale

Saturday the regular season will come to a close and the Riders hope that their current losing skid will come to an end as well as they host the 2^nd place Eskimos.

Doing a game preview for the last week of the regular season as about as difficult as doing one for a preseason game. A bunch of starters will be rested and the teams generally don’t care about the results. Only one of the games on this week’s schedule features a match-up where both teams actually care… and we are not one of those match-ups. As you can see there is a reason TSN doesn’t employ me to write the narratives for CFL commercials.

The outcome of the BC game on Friday night will dictate just how meaningful this game is to the Riders. If BC wins, we are headed East for the playoffs. If BC wins we have a chance to stay West with a victory. Essentially we will be left with option to “do your best to stay west” or “do the least to head east”. Logic would dictate East being the preferred option as Edmonton is a more formidable opponent than anything the East has. That said, we have played like garbage out East this year (and that’s putting it nicely) and generally seem to play western opponents with more intensity. So I’m not sure that there is a clear cut preferred route (especially with Mike Reilly’s health up in the air). I am of the opinion that we should be playing to win this game and let the chips fall where they may in terms of opponent next week.

Standings-wise the game may be meaningless but I don’t for a second believe that winning this game is not important. We are a team that has forgotten how to win. Our last victory was September 21 when we barely beat the lowly RedBlacks. Our last victory before that… September 7^th against Winnipeg. Our last victory over a playoff-bound team… August 24^th over the Lions. So anyone who is truly confident in our ability to magically rediscover how to win come playoff time is relying mostly on blind faith (and possibly alcohol). In all phases of the game (not just QB), we are not playing at a high enough level to succeed in the postseason. We have seen flashes… let’s not forget we went toe to toe with the #1 and #2 teams in the CFL and had chances to beat both of them. But shoulda, woulda and coulda have a cousin, his name is nobody gives a crap. Winning is all that matters and Saturday the Riders have a chance to go out and prove that they are indeed a team that can win.

All the talk in Riderville is of course the Darian Durant watch. He is practicing, there is a remote chance he activated for spot action this weekend and a somewhat better chance he plays in the playoffs. Not to downplay the importance of the return of our franchise player but he is the least of my concerns this week. I have long been of the opinion that he won’t play again this year. If he does, it’s a massive bonus but I am not counting on that and neither should the team. We need to prove we can win with Joseph at the helm. And the thing is I think we can. The Riders have played some great football at times with Joseph under centre (as I’ve said a remotely competent QB makes all the difference). Our problem has been that our inability to keep up that level of play for 4 quarters.

Offensively the key on Saturday will be spreading the ball around. Last game, Joseph and the offense were effective early when he involved everyone in the passing game. Things deteriorated late in the game when Joseph completely locked onto Getzlaf and Bagg and we abandoned the run. We are not a super powered offense but we do have the talent to be effective is we just spread the ball around enough to keep the defense from keying in on exactly what we are doing. Also let’s not over complicate things. Joseph has shown a good arm but we are a team that is most successful when we pound teams on the ground. Our starting OL should be back so let’s revive the run game.

Defensively, having to deal with Nichols as opposed to Reilly is a huge difference. Nichols is nowhere near as mobile or good as Reilly. Key will be limiting John White (which is becoming a pretty tough task). If we can force Nichols to throw, either the pressure from our front 4 will get to him or he will make errant passes. We are likely to see a lot of Pat White too. Which really flips things as he is a very effective runner but a so-so passer. Playing contain on him will be key as he doesn’t scare me if he’s forced to pass consistently. Hard to say how much we will see of guys like Bowman and White. I’m expecting a lot of rotation with the Esks wanting to limit the expose to risk for their offensive stars. 

Sounds like Neal Hughes will be back which should improve our blocking but more importantly our special teams (a major reason we lost to the Esks last time).

A loss is not catastrophic but I think this team really needs a win to get that monkey off our back and regain our confidence heading into the playoffs. For me this game comes down to the care factor… the Esks don’t care at all, we care somewhat and are playing at home. If for no other reason than that I think we will win. There is a lot of talent and a lot of pride on that team and I think we will see both on full display.

Riders by 7

With that I will leave you to carefully contemplate the pros and cons of stocking up on drink tokens in case of a price increase next year.