Posts
Saturday the Riders are in the city that used to be called City of Champions but now I’m not sure what to call it. City that will always have the 80s? City soon to be ex-residence of Connor McDavid? City of it was definitely changing the Eskimo name that hurt attendance and not the lack of winning for a decade? Road games in Alberta always draw a big Saskie crowd.
This will be a game of adjustments. In the first game both teams displayed all the pass defending abilities of a one-legged midget. If either side can figure out how to put up even moderate resistance in the pass game it will have a huge advantage. Will Harris continue to attack Edmonton deep, or will he a Mueller change it up and dink and dunk? Will Edmonton look to re-ignite Rankin or will they let Fajardo keep slinging it until we prove we can stop it. Both teams will be looking to make adjustments and the team that is the most successful probably emerges victorious.
I will start on offense because I think any hope of emerging with a win starts and stops with Trevor Harris. And that’s good news because he just hung 34 points on the best defense in the CFL and could have easily put up 50. Emilus is questionable but I am assuming he plays. Harris and his big 3 continue to be a problem for opposing defenses. If you key on one Harris is savvy enough to find one of the others. And his O-line is giving him the time to do so (though with Harris it’s a bit of a chicken and egg thing because I think his quick release helps the O-line look good just as much as they make him look good). Conley steps back in at RB. I don’t love that but he does add an explosive aspect to the run game that Ouelette/Hudon can’t. If Edmonton wants to sellout on slowing down the aerial Harris assault there should be room for him and his speed to do some damage on the ground. Once again we will need a minimum 30 points from Harris… no reason to think he can’t deliver. Our lowest points in a game this season is 27. We should avoid 34 point specifically though. We are 0-2 this season when scoring 34 (that’s just another super valuable piece of statistical analysis that you’ve come to expect from me).
I would love to be more optimistic about defense but we just got shredded for 500 yards through the air and now get to do it all again without Milligan. Oddly we were better statically with Edouard in at half. Though that is a bit like saying that releases of Nick Cage movies cause swimming pool deaths correlation is not causality (the Nick Cage thing is real by the way). I think there is a temptation to over-correct and try and stop the pass in this one. But the risk is that the more you do that the more they will turn to Rankin. I would honestly rather keep Rankin at bay and bank on Fajardo not throwing 500 again rather than smother Fajardo and bank on Rankin not stomping us. We just need some god damn communication in the secondary. Way too many coverage break downs. Front 7 can help by getting pressure up front. As was demonstrated when Cody hurled that ball sideways like it was a bomb about to explode, pressure can lead to poor decisions.
Edmonton has not lost at home. Saskatchewan has not lost a road game… unless you count that road trip to Toronto. The Elks rightly got the glory after the last game but let’s not forget we went toe to toe with them and had chances to win. This is another heavyweight battle between two top teams.
I have been waffling between pessimism
and optimism this week:
-
Optimistically there were about 5 plays that were
there but we narrowly missed on last game. If we make even one of them we win.
If we make 3 or 4 we win decisively.
-
Pessimistically, we just lost at home off a bye week
with a healthy roster. We are now on the road with a far made depleted roster.
Pessimism has been winning out. That said, this strikes me as one of those games that will defy logic. I can very much see us losing the winnable game at home only to win a losable game on the road. Years of cheering for this team have me trying to outthink myself.
Riders by a Conley TD from 20+ out.
1 comment:
I'm still down for the Riders to win this one. (I had Wpg last night so what do I know). I WILL say that my June 1st Bomber rant on here makes it perfectly clear that I think the Bombers have a crap team this year but I REALLY didn't think a Rourke-less team could win. But then, who puts 300+ plenty more rushing on anyone???
I digress. For me rehashing past results is futile. IF the Emilus TD stands, no extra play to run down the clock for a FG. Assuming every other play remains the same, the Elks are on the 50 or so with, not 18 seconds, but maybe 35-40. Plenty of time to still get at TD - or not.
Truth is that TD would change everything on the ensuing drive. Rider DB's play 5-10 yds further back to prevent a TD. Elks don't pass inside the lines to Luther 3 times to kill the clock while marching for FG position. Instead, the middle is open for picking up bigger chunks & they will be looking to step out of bounds. That one TD alters the chances of winning but for those who think that wins the game assumes all the play calling afterward remains the same. The Elks on that final drive were intent on getting into FG position & killing whatever is left on the clock doing it.
In any case, we lost, both teams deserved to win. But I concede that when you get 500 yds passing laid on you, you can't really complain too much on the final result. We get another chance tomorrow.
Post a Comment