Riders vs. Elks: First Place Showdown

Before I get to the game I feel I should at least make an attempt to comment on this week’s tragedy. It’s unimaginably sad for everyone involved. I don’t know what happened and I won’t make an attempt to explain things. So I’ll simply say this. Sometimes there are mental health things we can’t see. Sometimes good people just made bad choices. Just like them being a good person does not absolve the bad decision. The bad decisions does not negate the good things they did. Life is not black and white like we want. Its full of grey.  Two people tragically lost their loves this week and two families face a lifetime of grief. 

Onto the game…

It’s a shame its been overshadowed by tragedy because on its own this is a heavyweight match-up. The two top teams in the west. You have to go back a long way to find the last time Edmonton came into Mosaic as a relevant team. You have to go back passed the Brock Sunderland era, the second Chris Jones era, the Scott Milanovich era, the Jaime Elizondo era, the Taylor Cornelius era, the Nick Arbuckle era. They paid guys like Geno Lewis and Kenny Lawler insane money to wallow in crapulence for a season. Pretty much a great decade for anyone not actually associated with the Elk franchise. 

But they are back and a force to be reckoned with.

While Justin Rankin is rightfully getting all the hype, I am going to start with the real reason they are doing so well… the defense. Least points allowed, 2^nd least yards allowed and most takeaways (and their stats aren’t inflated due to playing Jake Dole-TheBallToAnyoneButMyReceivers-gala). Former Rider Coach JC Sherritt took his lumps in year 1 of being a DC but he has grown by leaps and bounds. They have exactly 1 win by a margin of more than one score. Their defense keeps it close and give them a chance. Priority 1 is don’t serve up turnovers. With guys like Ford and Jackson they will make you pay for bad passes. BC is the only team to put up 30 points on the Elks and they did it on the ground. So that’s where we start. Give Ouelette a heavy workload. We are physically fresh off the bye and Edmonton is traveling on a short week. Pound them into the ground with the run. That said, our biggest weapon offensively is Emilus, KeeSean and Baker so we can’t be afraid to attack with our strength. A big key will be finishing drives with majors. Not only does it avoid the panic enducing risk of letter Alex Fale on the field, since week 1 Edmonton has scored over 24 just once. If we can put up 25-30 our chances of victory sky rocket. 

Offensively the talk starts and stops with Rankin. Let him run lose and you are in trouble. Stop him and you put a ton of pressure on a very mediocre passing attack. The problem is that stopping is about as easy as getting a certain president off the FIFA stage. Again, BC showed the blue print. They held him to 7 carries in each of their 2 games. In non-BC games Rankin averaged 15 carries. In those BC games Edmonton average 21.5 points. In the other gams they averaged 31. So sell out to stop Rankin in the run game. Edmonton has the #5 passing attack and Fajardo’s 8.2 yards per pass is the lowest among starting QBs. 

Ironically while you expect run stopping and soft pass D from Corey Mace (particularly when missing Millgan), we have been the opposite. Amazingly despite starting a 3^rd string Canadian HB we have the #1 pass D. And that should only improve with the return of Milligan. We have the #6 run D.  Our tackling (which has been closer to lovingly trying hump opponents into submission) was visibly improved last game and we need that to continue.

A factor in this could be discipline. We have been very good this year. Edmonton is the second most penalized. 

Bonus stat: Did you know no one has punted less than Oscar Chapman?

A game with this much emotion goes one of 2 ways. Either teams channel it and come out with a statement game. Or they succumb to it and come out flat. I think both are possible. Given our tendency to sleep through the 1^st quarter on a good day we won’t actually know until the 2^nd where we stand. But I am a believer in Mace and the leadership of this team so I put better odds on channeling the emotion. 

Edmonton is legitimately a good team but a closer look a their schedule shows they beat Ottawa twice, and BC without Rourke (barely). They are not invincible. 

Under normal circumstances I think we would grind out a close win. These are far from normal circumstances so I fear we fight valiantly but come up just short. Two solid defenses on a Thursday means this will be a low scoring affair. The lower the score, the more kickers are a factor and thus, edge Elks. 

Elks by 3