Monday, September 23, 2019

Monday Morning Sentimonies: Dickenson vs. Jones Part 2


Last bye week I did a feature comparing where the 2019 Riders were at as compared to the 2108 ones under Chris Jones. Given that we are just coming off our last bye week and about the start the final third of the regular season I thought it would be good to check back in on that comparison. This idea for a Monday post narrowly beat our one where I was going to do an ode to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and just have like 25 gifs of people choking.

After 12 Games
2018
2019
Difference
% Change
Wins
7
8
+1

Offense
Points
303
320
+17
+6%
Offensive TDs
15
30
+15
+100%
Passing Yards
2509
3116
+607
+24%
Rushing Yards
1314
1343
+29
+2%
Sacks allowed
14
23
+9
+64%
Turnovers
23
18
-5
-22%
Defense
Points allowed
303
278
-25
-8%
Passing Yds allowed
3146
2701
-445
-14%
Rushing Yds allowed
1118
1140
+22
+2%
Sacks
29
36
+7
+24%
Turnovers
31
15
-16
-52%
Special Teams
Punt Return Avg
13.8
8.5
-5.3
-38%
Opponent Punt Ret Avg
8.7
17.3
+8.6
+99%
Kickoff return avg
23.8
27.7
+3.9
+16%
Opponent Kickoff Ret Avg
20.3
18.9
-1.4
-7%
Net punt avg
34.6
35.5
+0.9
+3%
Penalties
94
130
+36
+38%
Players Dressed
63
64
+1
+2%

The first thing of note is that we currently have one more win than this time last season. The little extra cushion is good because last year we went 5-1 down the stretch and I think our schedule is tougher than last year. Last year the big key was that we were 7-3 against western opponents. We currently sit at 3-2 with 5 division games left. Our odds of a second consecutive home playoff game ride on winning at least 3 of those… that and hoping the Bombers continue to blow big leads.

Offensively the numbers are obviously way up. Though take that with a grain of salt because saying we are way better on offense this year is like saying someone is way taller than Weston Dressler. I think a big key has been limiting the turnovers. Sacks allowed are up but that’s because we are actually running plays this year that may result in a sack instead of exclusively running inside runs and hitch screens. We’ve seen how hot and cold this offensive can be so consistency will be the key going forward. We can’t afford to regress back to those 1 offensive TD games.

I continue to be impressed by how our defense is grading out. Its weird to me because to the eyes it would seem last year’s D was better. But if you exclude turnovers and defensive TDs, this year’s D is actually performing better. Less points allowed, less passing yards and more sacks. Jason Shivers is not as creative or unorthodox as his mentor but he’s shown the ability to call a solid D, even with rotating parts along the D-line.

I’ve already spoken at great length about our special teams. Kickoff stuff is great. Punting stuff is a stress inducing rollercoaster ride. The pace of improvement has been disappointingly slow (especially when our head coach’s specialty is special teams) but it is improving. I think Chad Geter is a big boost to our coverage unit. I still struggle with how we suck so much at punt returns when we are so good at kickoff returns. I just hope that a certain punter doesn’t take issue with my “made up stats” that don’t attest to his greatness.

The one thing that is super concerning to me is the massive increase in penalties. Its not even subtle anymore. I would have lost money if you would have bet me that Chris Jones would run a more disciplined operation (though I guess most of his “creativeness” came off the field). This is one area that needs to be cleaned up in a hurry. I notice it the most in the secondary but it is happening across the whole team. In 2018 we took 137 penalties total, we already have 130 through just 12 games. Dickenson needs to reign the guys in a bit.

I honestly did not expect us to be where we are now coming into the season. I definitely didn’t think we’d be where we are after Collaros got Lawrenced (yes he’s now done it so many times that it qualifies to use as a verb…).

5 comments:

Bryce Taylor said...

When it comes to Penalties which starts with 'P', remember thusly: Proper Practice Prevents Piss Poor Performance.

Anonymous said...

The turnover differential change at -11 from last season is something I would have expected to impact us more significantly than it has. Looking back at your analysis at the 6 game mark we better off than we were as we were -9 at that point, a trend that could not continue. Hopeful the improvement in turnover ratio can be duplicated with a similar improvement in penalty reduction.

Nice analysis Prophet.

Dan said...

Above comment by Dan

Rider Prophet said...

Bryce - you're right. Prevention of penalties starts in practice.

Dan - I think the key is that we are giving the ball away less. You can win games without getting a turnover easier than you can win games while giving the ball away. I hope the upward trend there continues

Anonymous said...

It would be unrealistic to expect the turnovers on defence to be near what we had last year. First of all we had 3 guys - Jefferson, Eguavoen & Antigha who accounted for over half of the TD's scored on a record tying performance. But the team overall is much better starting with the QB position. Had Lawrence not been Lawrence who knows how this year would have gone. Certainly I hated to see Collaros get injured but I never had much faith in him being what he has been since his injury in 2015 - namely injured a lot & not the same player anymore. The stats bear that out. Tough schedule - maybe. But the Bombers have the toughest schedule playing teams who at present have a 70% winning percentage down the stretch, Stamps play teams with a 57% tally & Rider opponents coming up have a 45% winning %. I see a home playoff game.