Are You Smarter Than A Toddler - Week 4 Picks

Here are the Prophet family picks for Week 4.

Prophet Junior - Winnipeg, Toronto, Hamilton, Montreal
Rider Prophet - Edmonton, Toronto, Calgary, BC
Mrs. Prophet - Winnipeg, Ottawa, Calgary, BC
Step-Prophet -  Winnipeg, Toronto, Calgary, BC
Momma Prophet -  Winnipeg, Toronto, Calgary, BC

Please have your picks in by kickoff on Thursday

Monday Morning Sentimonies: Sinking To The Bottom

Riders 13 - BC 26

Well the good news is that we didn't suck as bad as last week... the bad news is that we still aren't playing good enough football to win games. The Riders dropped their second straight game on Saturday night and in the process sunk to the bottom of the West division standings (which if we played in the East may have clinched a home playoff game).

We knew coming into this season that we weren't likely to steamroll teams like we did at points last season. We knew we'd have to eke out some close wins. We aren't built at this point to overcome many mistakes and Saturday was full of them. Charles dropped a TD (at first I was curious why we even challenged that because it clearly was not a catch, then I remembered this is the CFL and that would not have been the most ridiculous thing to result from video review that I have seen). Eron Riley dropped a beautifully thrown ball (and in the process I hope ended his Rider career. If we needed a tall useless receiver we should just bring back Prechae). Those are the kinds of plays a team like us can't afford not to make.

Our defense was supposed to be the strength of this team... if what I saw on Saturday is our strength, we are screwed. Andrew Harris was single-handedly better than all 44 players we dressed.While Harris is one talented player, if we were capable of tackling on the 2nd or even 3rd attempt, we could have cut his production in half. It was embarrassing. I am a huge Maze fan but these last two games have been by far the worst of his CFL career... timing couldn't be worse as this is precisely the time we needed him to step up. Chad Kilgore can't get healthy soon enough because teams are realizing that the Hurl/Peters/Black combo is a liability and are exploiting it. Even our D-line wasn't near as disruptive as they should have been. Too many penalties hurt us as well. That said I will give the D credit they did show some resilience and made enough plays to at least give us a chance.

The same can't be said for our offense which is just useless. The the impact the injury to Getzlaf (and too a lesser extent Schillens) had on our offense was painfully obvious. Riley is useless. Swain was uncharacteristically invisible. Even Bagg couldn't seem to get on the same page as Durant. Ryan Smith has potential but is not yet the kind of WR we can lean heavily on. Taj Smith tried but one receiver cannot carry an offense. You can just tell Durant feels uncomfortable out there. He doesn't have a feel for the receivers out there and most of them liekly aren't where they should be anyway. That uneasiness is making him less decisive and more mistake prone. You can also tell that our inexperienced receivers are out of their league went it comes to recognizing blitzes and adjusting their routes accordingly. That's a side effect of going from a veteran group that made life easy for Durant to this group that are making his job harder.. and he so far isn't responding well.

Normally when your pass game struggles you lean on your run game. Unfortunately our run game is degenerating into comic absurdity. We focused on it early and had some success. Charles look good early. He even looked good running up the middle which is a good sign for a scat back. But then he fumbled and it all went to hell. Charles was never seen from again. (For the record I said in my pre-game write-up that Hugh Charles is not the answer if ball security is the issue so it doesn't come as a big surprise) Back in comes Allen... at least until he fumbles at which point Messam will come in... until he fumbles and then we will ask Cobourne to unretire until he fumbles. It's a joke. At some point we need to pick a RB and commit to him. What we are doing now is causing the RBs to play timid and try to avoid mistakes as opposed to playing aggressive and trying to make plays. It's not a recipe for success. It hurts the players, it hurts the continuity of our O. It's poor coaching.

Bottom line is that we knew we'd be in tough coming into the season and the fact that we are without Getzlaf, Schillens and Kilgore has compounded the issue. We had a chance to beat BC but didn't make near enough plays to make it a reality. I'm not going to write of the season like some as I think we are in for a strong finish but in the short term we are going to be in for some struggles. We aren't good enough offensively. We have issues at LB and the rest of our D can't tackle. Hopefully the bye week will do us some good and we can figure some of this out.

Other random thoughts:
- That final offensive series was beyond idiotic. Why on earth are we throwing short passes and putting our star receiver at risk at the end of a game we have already clearly lost?!? We are Taj didn't get hurt while he was being spun like a ferris wheel.

- How complicated is a freakin' coin toss?!?! BC almost managed to screw it up. Hamilton had issue 2 weeks ago. It's crazy

- Not sure if you noticed but Gainer was almost invisible that game. I have 2 theories: Either Gainer was beyond hungover and was mailing it in or the real Gainer was on a Craven bender and didn't show up so they put some random dude in the Gainer suit and told him to not do anything to attract attention to himself.

Riders vs. BC: This Time With Less Suck

Let’s all pray that last week was the worst collectively performance we are going to witness (honestly short of losing their pants or doing interpretive dance during a play I’m not sure how it could get worse), burn the tape and move on with life.

Saturday the winless Lions come to town for a night game against the Riders. I love night games! There is just an added intensity in the crowd (likely correlated with added intoxication) The stadium should be loud as we try to ensure the Lions stay winless. Between preseason games and Mother Nature’s attempt to drown us, we haven’t unleashed the full fury of Mosaic yet and there’s no better time than Saturday night to do it.

Aside from the obvious (every player has to not play like a giant sack of crap again) here are what I see as the keys to the game…

The key weakness we need to attack relentlessly in order to win is that BC O-line. About the nicest thing I can say about them is that they suck less than Hamilton. They suck in run blocking (they are averaging a league low 3.9 yds per rush). They suck in pass blocking (have allowed 9 sacks and routinely allow opposing DL in the backfield with relatively little resistance). Word is Kirby Fabien will replace T-Dre Player (an awesome a ridiculously made up first name). The huge weakness is the tackle Ryan Cave who looked beyond lost last game (not surprising for an import in his first CFL game). Chick and Foley should have a big days against him. If our front four can get pressure on Glenn he will do stupid things… like throw picks to the ever athletic D-tackles (come on Tearrius keep the streak alive).  BC accounts for one third of all INTs thrown in the CFL in 2014 and consistent pressure on Glenn will help push that number higher.

Manny Arceneaux should make his season debut which is a huge boost to that receiving core. Without him they have a lot of decent receivers but no game breakers. Arceneaux needs to be blanketed because he can deliver big plays if left unchecked even for a moment. If we can limit the big play to him then I like our secondary’s chances of contain the rest of that group. Aside from Arceneaux the thing that scares me most is Andrew Harris. He is a good runner but outstanding when catching the ball out of the backfield. Our LBs need to give him no space to work with. If our D-line can occupy the OL it will free up the LBs to swarm to him. Word is Tristan Black will see a lot more playing time (not sure if that’s a good thing or not, but at least its not Shomari). I am not worried about Macho stepping in at HB. He’ll be fine… for a week or two until he’s injured.

Offensively, I don’t really know what to expect. We couldn’t handle Toronto’s D and they are nowhere near as talented as BC. Our OL will need to play at the level we’ve come to expect if we are to handle Smith, Taylor and Mitchell and give Duranr some time to work. I expect the OL to show up angry and play hard. The bigger concern when dealing with BC is the combo of Bighill and Elimimian. We know we will need a strong run game to be effective but Allen has fumbled on far lighter contact than those 2 bring and it’s not like Charles gives me much more confidence. I expect ball security will be priority #1 so maybe I shouldn’t be worried but I am a bit. For as good as that front 7 is they are so far dead last in run defense which is surprising. Montreal had success last week on the ground so we can’t be afraid to attack it.

The main weakness in that D is the same one it has always been, safety. For years BC has struggled to fill that with spot with someone who was evenly remotely as talented as the rest of that group. Their big plan was to finally address that with Craig Butler but he snubbed them and they were stuck with LaRose back there again. We need to run routes that force LaRose to make decisions, he will make mistakes and big plays will result. Beyond that I think that, much like the west-semifinal if Durant can use his legs (not lots but a few times here and there) it will force the D to respect that and open up things more for the receivers and whoever runs the ball.

One caution I will make is our blocking on punts... Hughes is a leader on teams and I'm hoping that the lack of his presence won't result in a missed assignment and a blocked kick. With a week to plan hopefully all special team assignments are crystal clear.

With Arceneaux and Fabien in the lineup I don’t expect the Lions to be the embarrassment that we saw last week, that said I think this game will be won in the trenches and I expect us to win that matchup on both sides of the ball. Add the home field advantage and raucous crowd and the end result should be a Rider win. If Getzlaf was in I'd predict a wider margin of victory but he's not so...

Riders by a late Brett Swain TD… (Ryan Phillips will still probably complain that we ran up the score)

Are You Smarter Than A Toddler - Week 3 Picks

Here are the Prophet family picks for week 3.

Prophet Jr - Winnipeg, Edmonton, Toronto, Saskatchewan
Rider Prophet - Montreal, Edmonton, Calgary, Saskatchewan
Mrs. Prophet - Montreal, Edmonton, Toronto, Saskatchewan
Step Prophet - Winnipeg, Edmonton, Toronto, Saskatchewan
Momma Prophet - Winnipeg, Ottawa, Calgary, BC

Be sure to have your picks in by kickoff on Friday

Monday Morning Sentimonies: Eastern Embarassment

Riders 15- Argos 48

They all sucked.

If I stopped my analysis right there it would pretty much be comprehensive. About the only good thing I can about that garbage was at least they are close enough as teammates to all decide to suck as one collective unit. Honestly, there's been stuff in Prophet Jr's diapers that didn't stink that much.

What it boiled down to (I mean other than everyone sucking) was that our best players were not our best players... well maybe they were technically our best but they were the best in same way someone is the "best" player on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Our defense was so useless I'm not sure why they even bothered coming on the field. The secondary that was supposed to be our defensive strenght looked awful. Maze had a bad day. Anderson must have some condition in getting his charges dropped whereby he can't use his hands to initiate physical contact because he attempts at tackling were embarrassing. And for me that was the big frustration. Ray, Owens and Durie are elite level talent, they are going to make plays. But we helped them with every missed tackle (of which there were many). Hard enough to beat them without making their life easier. Last week against Hamilton, our blitzes paralyzed the O. This week, you could almost see Ray laughing as he knew exactly where to put the ball to make a play when we tried to blitz.

Offense decided to show up for exactly 2 minutes of that game during which Durant surgically tore that defense apart (like i expected heading into this game). But for the remaining 48 mins of that game the O was as useless as the D. To a man, our much vaunted OL got beat. Picard, Best, Labatte, you name it, I saw them lose one on one battles all day. That put even more pressure on Durant who wasn't having a good day to begin with. He just looked flustered. Forcing passes, ignoring clear running lanes in favour or passing. Inexperienced receivers likely didn't help but that wasn't the only problem. Then there was Allen... I won't get too much into him. He fumbled (again), he needs to get better, he will.The only part of that entire game I enjoyed was Neal Hughes showing how a running back is supposed to play. Run hard, block hard, play smart. Hughes is immensely underrated in my opinion. A shame to see him injured. Hopefully he's back soon.

So there it is. We played an awful game. Doesn't mean we are an awful team just that we sucked on that day. Remember Banjo Bowl last year? That was an embarrassment too but we recovered as I'm sure we will do here. This is the worst loss in the Chamblin era so I'm confident he and the coaches will get this team back on track.

Riders vs. Argos: On The Road

Saturday the Riders face their first road test of the year as they travel to Toronto (likely to play in front of less people then were at our first preseason game) to face the 0-1 Argos. The Riders will be looking build off an impressive win at home. The Argos will be looking to have their defense try and stop something.

They got worked over by Winnipeg's Willy and while I do not put too much stock in one game, it's hard not to openly wonder just how bad this Argo defense will be... at least early in the season. They lost their Defensive Coordinator and Pat Watkins to Edmonton, they lost Robert McCune to retirement, they lost David Lee to us and they took the bold strategy of releasing pretty much everyone else on that D who had talent (Mitchell, Ball and Thorpe). Sure they signed Shea Emry but last time I checked he can`t play every position on the defense. Best he can do is hold down the MLB spot and designated nut puncher simultaneously. They are essentially starting a brand new defense and predictably they have more gaping holes than a whore house. If Willy can throw for 300 yds and 4 TDs on them behind a mediocre OL, just imagine what Durant can do behind our line. Expect another heavy dose of Allen (just like how Winnipeg used Grigsby) and that will open things for Durant. Even with our lack of experience at WR, Durant and Cortez will find ways to score. I expect at least 30 points for us.

That essentially means that the game will boil down to whether we can the Argo O and Speical Teams to 4 majors or less. I like those odds.

Ricky Ray actually played a decent game last week inspite of the results... it was just overshadowed by turnovers and an embarrassing defense. I expect Ray to be his usual ridiculously accurate self. With Owens and Durie at his disposal our secondary will have a much tough task. Also the Argos OL is far better than whatever the Ticats tried to pass off as an OL last week so don`t expect our DL to be as dominant. They will still be the key though. The way to stop Ray is to make life miserable for him in the pocket. Foley and Chick (with support from George and Walker) will need to have big games. Also, I expect the Argos to try and establish a run game. If Hurl and Peters can stuff that early and make them one dimensional then our pass rushers will be able to dial it up again and go on the attack.

The Argos`ability to score on kick returns is well documented so we need to play smart on coverage and ensure we don`t allow any game altering plays there.

Feels wrong being this cocky when facing Ricky Ray but I see no reason we should lose this game. I doubt we blow them out like Winnipeg did but their D in a mess and our O is still potent. Our D is solid enough to hold the Argos O in check.

Riders by 14

Are You Smarter Than A Toddler - Week 2 Picks

Here are the Prophet family picks for week 2. There is still time to enter if you have not already done so. Just email me your picks and you are in the contest and eligible to win cash prizes

Prophet Jr. - Winnipeg, Edmonton, Montreal, Saskatchewan
Rider Prophet - Winnipeg, Hamilton, BC, Saskatchewan
Mrs. Prophet - Winnipeg, Edmonton, BC, Saskatchewan
Step-Prophet - Winnipeg, Edmonton, BC, Saskatchewan

Be sure to have your picks in by kickoff on Thursday