Riders vs. Eskimos: Third and Final Time

Saturday the Riders (winners of 5 of their last 6) take their hot streak on the road to Edmonton to face the Eskimos (winners of 1 of their last 6). We have a chance to lock up a playoff spot in the west with a win so hopefully we can turn in another solid performance at Commonwealth (a place where we historically struggle).  If all goes as planned this will be the last time we have to see the Esks until 2013... and by then they could be a very different looking team.

Last time we played at Commonwealth we let Steven freaking Jyles carve us up on route to a disappointing loss. Fortunately since then the universe has righted itself and our defense is greatly improved and Jyles has found his way back to the bench.  Well then again old man Joseph is starting so maybe the universe hasn’t completely righted itself.

Based on the last game, it’s pretty obvious that Kavis Reed’s big offensive game plan is “Give Stamps the Ball”. I know we are shocked that a reputable offensive mind such as Kavis couldn’t come up with something more intricate but so far it’s been effective. Obviously we will need to keep him in check if we hope to leave Edmonton with a win. Marcus Henry is really the only other receiver that concerns me (I mean the only thinkg that concerns me about the likes of Dobson Collins and Matt Carter is that they are considered starting material).  The other major concern is keeping Hugh Charles contained. He has sure developed into one hell of a back. I liked him when he was here but I’d be lying if I said that I thought he could ever be an every down back... let alone one who has already racked up over 1200 yards from scrimmage and 7 TDs. He’s speed and shiftiness will be a challenge for our LBs. I’m not even going to bother talking about Messam... the 4 touches he will get will be inconsequential.

Honestly the game plan defensive should look very similar to last week just cross out the names Jackson and Owens and write in Joseph and Stamps... same style, same risks. We know full well Joseph is not a precision passer so if we can contain Charles and take away the deep pass, the Esks will struggle to put together drives on a consistent basis. Based on how well our D has been playing of late, I’m confident we will be fine. Also keep in mind that despite the last game, Edmonton is still a brutal offense: 2^nd lowest scoring, 2^nd least yards gained, and an O-line that obviously doesn’t think their awful QBs are worth protecting.

The game will be decided based on the play of our offense. If we play our game, avoid turnovers and put up at least 20 points we will win. If we turn the ball over and let the Esks D dictate our play then we give them a chance to grind out a win. The Esks D will give up a ton of yards. They have allowed the second most passing yards and have the worst run D in the league. Paging Kory Sheets! I expect him and the returning JC Sherritt to see a lot of each other (though it would be even better if one of our OL could meet up with Sherritt and spring Sheets). But the Esks D doesn’t give up a lot of points and leads the league by wide margin in turnovers. Ball security will be paramount. Durant needs to continue making good decisions. I feel like a broken record but for the love of god DO NOT throw the out to McHenry! Lean on Sheets and Dressler and mix in some West, Carr and Getzlaf (I would say Smith too but I still think he’s too inconsistent to be trusted against a team that is as good at creating turnovers as the Esks).

For all the analyzing and opining that people have been doing about the Esks, one major thing that I think has been missed is the impact of Marcus Howard and Ted Laurent. Those 2 are game changers. With both of those guys in the lineup the Esks are a completely different team. Don’t believe me? Consider this stat:

The Esks are 4-1 when both Laurent and Howard play. Allowing an average of a mere 14 points.

The record falls to 2 and 3 when only one plays and the avg points allowed rises to 27.

And when neither play... they are 0 and 4 allowing an average of 29 points.

We will have to deal with Laurent but not Howard so that should play to our advantage. O-line will still need to step up protect Durant from the fierce Esk pass rush and open up holes for Sheets to rack up huge yards.

Really this game boils down to this: both teams have solid defenses (and right now I would say ours is playing better) but only one team has a solid offense. Play, smart, control the ball and wake up Sunday morning with a ticket to the playoffs booked.

Riders by 14.

Are You Smarter Than A Baby - Week 16

Here are the Prophet Family Picks for week 16. Please have your picks in by kickoff on Friday.

Prophet Jr. - Hamilton, Winnipeg, Saskatchewan, Toronto
Rider Prophet - BC, Calgary, Saskatchewan, Montreal
Mrs. Prophet - BC, Calgary, Saskatchewan, Montreal

(Step-Prophet's picks will be up tomorrow)

Also for those interested here are the complete standings:

1 - Jim, Mrs. Prophet - 34 points
3 - Prophet Jr. - 32 pts
4 - Tom, Steve - 30 pts
6 - Rider Prophet, Kurtis, Wes - 29 pts
9 - DB, Thad - 28 pts
10 - Step-Prophet, CK - 27 pts
12 - Skid, Man In The Bus - 26 pts
15 - CK's Toddler - 23 pts
16 - Dave - 19 pts
17 - Momma Prophet - 14 pts **
18 - Tim - 13 pts

** Momma Prophet would be mad if I did not make note of the fact that she only joined in week 5

Tuesday Morning Sentimonies: So Much To Be Thankful For

Riders 36 – Argos 10

All’s well that ends well. The Riders defeated the Jarious Jackson-led Argos on Thanksgiving Monday to move to 8-6 and back in the mix for a home playoff game. Well maybe “led” isn’t the correct  term, more like Jackson-tolerated or Jackson endured.

I’m glad it ended well because the start of the game gave me some concern.  Despite the first quarter featuring a huge opening return by West, a gift of a pass by Jackson that should have gone for 6, a fumble on the next drive and a near miss by Butler on a kickoff recovery, we were only up 13-10 late in the second quarter. Toronto was going out of its way to give us the game and we were letting them stick around.

Fortunately it was it this point that the Riders remembered they were a damn good football team and the Argos remembered that there is a reason that after almost a decade in the league, Jarious Jackson is still not viewed as starting material unless every other option is hurt. After that it was all Saskatchewan. And really it should have been. The Argos have a good D but ours is better. The Argos without Ray and Kackert have a terrible offense and ours is on top of its game. This is a game we should have won... and unlike a certain French team who played before us we actually didn’t choke.

Why did we not think to injure Durant’s hip flexor earlier? Apparently that’s what was holding him back. Ever since returning from that injury, Durant has been playing outstanding. He’s averaging 300 yards per game, completing 68% of his passes and has only turned the ball over once... all while not taking off and running one solitary time. He just seems dialed in... opposing defenses beware. Keep in mind that over the past 2 weeks, Durant has bested Rich Stubler and Chris Jones who are the top DC’s in the league. No reason to believe we won’t be able to keep this up against other teams.

As impressed as I am with Durant’s play, it’s not all on him. He’s getting help from the rest of his offense (help that simply wasn’t there earlier in the season). The O-line is giving him time in the pocket (on that Dressler TD, Durant had enough time to carve a turkey, eat it and take a nap). They have allowed only 2 sacks in the past 3 games. Also helping Durant is the fact that Bob Dyce has wisely decided to lean on the running of Korey Sheets (feed him the ball and good things will happen) and the receiving of Dressler (who has amassed 355 yds and 4 TDs over the past 3 games). Lastly, players not named Sheets or Dressler are stepping up to make plays. Brandon West showed the effort you’d expect from a guy getting another shot at playing time, Neal Hughes stepped up with a huge play and even the normally unpredictable Taj Smith decided to actually catch the ball when called upon (though I’m convinced that last one was mostly to spite me given the less than favourable things I have been saying about him... but if that’s what it takes for us to win I can take it). I have been harping on it all year but look how taking a few deep shots per game helps stretch the defense and make life easier underneath. Keep it up.

As for the defense, sure they were playing a QB that has no business starting but still they did their job. They only allowed 10 points, forced turnovers and kept one of the league’s top receivers in check. It could have been even worse for the Argos if our DBs could catch. Really, the Argos only ever had one drive all game other than that the only threat of scoring while the Argos O was on the field was Jackson throwing a TD to our DBs.  Had Ray and Kackert both been in the game, it would have unfolded very differently but the way this defense is playing I don’t think the end result would have been any different.

That’s now 5 wins in our last 6 games, with our only loss coming in Montreal without Durant (and we were close in that one). We’ve gone from worrying about securing a playoff spot to worrying about securing a home playoff game (which is very attainable). In the true spirit of thanksgiving, the Riders gave us many reasons to be thankful.

Other random thoughts:

-       It was nice of the Rogers Centre to make it “Dress in green” day at the stadium

-       Seriously, how bad would attendance have been for that game if not for the Rider fans?

-       I still don’t like the guy but hats off to Sandro for punting the ball well when called upon.

-       For god sake stop throwing the out to McHenry!! It’s dangerous, he’s not a good receiver and even if by some fluke we complete it the benefit is minimal at best.

-       When did Drew Willy become so inconsistent on short yardage? Better fix that up and soon.

-       Was I the only one hoping that Picard would keep rumbling for big yards on that fumble recovery?

-       Toronto yet again took well over 100 yards in penalties. If I was reffing a Toronto game, I would petition to be paid per penalty called.

Are You Smarter Than A Baby Week 15 Results

Mrs. prophet led the family with 3 points, me and Prophet Jr. had 2 point weeks and Step-Prophet had a solitary point.

Outside of the Winnipeg upset (which only Dave and Prophet Jr. called) it was pretty good weeks all around.

Here are the current top 3

1 - Jim, Mrs. Prophet - 34 points
2 - Prophet Jr. - 32 points
3 - Steve, Tom - 30 points

Riders vs. Argos: Thanksgiving Day Showdown

It’s weird to be into October and be facing a team for the first time all season (or at least it seems weird... I’m too lazy to check and see if it’s happened before). But that’s what we get on Thanksgiving Monday when the 7-6 Riders travel to Toronto to take on the 7-6 Argos. While this game will be a huge deal for us Rider fans, despite the fact that the Maple Leafs are locked out, the Blue Jays are no longer playing and the Raptors haven’t started, the Argos still rank somewhere behind elementary school red rover and seniors bowling league in the hierarchy of local sports.

 The big question heading into Monday’s match-up is whether Ricky Ray will be healthy enough to return. Coach Chamblin said it will not affect the team’s preparations but it will definitely affect the game. I mean one is a hall of fame candidate and the other would only be a hall candidate if there was a wing for clipboard holding... or least outstanding Buono QB recruits. Some may point to Jackson’s last game as a sign he can be effective but I’ll remind you that it was against Winnipeg and the Argos’ mascot could probably have been just as effective a QB in that situation.

Actually regardless of which QB is under centre I’m not overly concerned. For one, Toronto just doesn’t score a lot of points. They have scored the least TDs of any team not named Winnipeg and are the 3^rd lowest scoring offense in the CFL. They have been relying on good defense and a ton of FGs... and in an unfortunate coincidence they also currently have the least accurate kicker (not a great combo). Also, all signs point to Chad Kackert missing the game due to injury meaning Gerald Riggs will get the call. Given that we have handled the likes of Cornish and Harris just fine in recent weeks, Riggs (who essentially amounts to the Argos’ 3^rd string RB) does not scare me.

Two guys the defense will have to keep in check are Chad Owens (who Ricky Ray has suddenly molded into an impact receiver) and Andre Durie (who is just one of those unheralded guys who is dangerous when he touches the ball. Our secondary should be up to the challenge. The task for the front 7 will depend on the QB. Ray lives on quick accurate passes, key is harassing him relentlessly (like we did with Lulay last week). If Jarious is in (and that’s what I’m expecting), he has 2 moves chuck it deep and run. That means the key for the front 7 is keeping him contained and forcing him to try and beat us through the air. As long as we don’t give up the big play, I have no doubt that Jackson will not be able to lead repeated sustained drives against us.

Our D has been playing phenomenal of late. We are #2 in terms of points allowed, rush yards allowed and pass yards allowed. I foresee a low scoring game on the Argos’ part.

Offensively it will be a lot tougher. In what should come as no surprise, Chris Jones has put in place a solid defense and it’s a stereotypical Jones D... high risk, high reward. They lead the league in turnovers created (including an amazing 20 INTs) but are middle of the pack in terms of yards and points allowed. Their strength is against the pass where there are allowing a league low 56% pass completion rate. Up front they are not so effective, they are dead last in the league in sacks and are #5 against the run. Their achilles heel though is the fact that they show a complete inability to avoid taking penalties. They are averaging over 100 penalty yards per game (which makes it really astonishing that they have a winning record). They have more penalty yards than rushing yards. It’s a by-product of the Chris Jones scheme though, as in Calgary, they play aggressive, in your face, man coverage in the secondary and sometimes it leads to picks but just as often leads to PI calls.

The Riders need to keep building on the offensive success of the past few weeks. That all starts with a reliable playmaker stepping up to take the place of Jack Sanders. It’s no coincidence that our offense got out of its funk when a weapon not named Sheets or Dressler emerged. We now need someone else to step up, West, Carr, Foster if healthy... don’t care who just somebody. OK that’s not entirely accurate I want it to be someone not named Smith, McHenry or Hargreaves.

Offensively we need to start with a heavy dose of Sheets. Argos are vulnerable to the run and we need to exploit that, plus Sheets is kinda good (for all the Cornish hype, Sheets has as many TDs and more yards from scrimmage). We also need to continue to lean on Dressler. Not sure if Durant is ready to run yet but that would certainly help, if not at least he has proven that he can be damn effective from the pocket. We need to take shots downfield to try and stretch the D and draw some of those PI calls the Argos like to handout. That said we can’t be careless about the shots we take, the Argos are very adept at turning off target throws into turnovers. Do not, I repeat, DO NOT even think about attempting the wide-side out to McHenry! It would be an act of charity to the Argos and we wouldn’t even get a tax receipt for it. Younger is a veteran safety so unfortunately I don’t see us embarrassing him like we did Muamba. Need to come up with a new plan. Those short passes that get Dressler the ball in space should be effective as should running two receivers to the middle on medium to deep routes to make Younger think about which to cover.

I’m expecting a low scoring, grinding type game between 2 great defenses and 2 offenses missing some key playmakers but I see the Riders pulling out the victory: our defense is better than their defense; we are starting our top QB and RB, they are starting the 2^nd and 3^rd stringer respectively; we are on a hot streak winning 4 of our last 5 with the last 2 coming against 2 of the better teams in the league, they are 1 for their last 3 with the lone win coming against the hapless bombers.

Its Jarious Jackson people! It would be a kick in the nuts to beat Lulay and then turnaround and lose to a slightly more intelligent version of Michael Bishop.

Riders by a Korey Sheets TD.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone. 

Are You Smarter Than A Baby - Week 15

Here are the Prophet Family picks for week 15. Be sure to have your picks in by kickoff on Friday.

Prophet Jr. - Edmonton, Calgary, Winnipeg, Toronto
Step-Prophet - Hamilton, BC, Montreal, Toronto
Rider Prophet - Hamilton, BC, Montreal, Saskatchewan
Mrs.  Prophet - Edmonton, BC, Montreal, Saskatchewan
Momma Prophet - Hamilton, Calgary, Montreal, Toronto

Monday Morning Sentimonies: Saturday Night Lights

Riders 27 – BC 21

This is why I love night games! The crowd is louder, the intensity is off the charts, it just has a completely different feel. Fortunately that translated into some incredible play on the field and a win over the heavily favoured Lions. Mosaic was rocking and it was an outstanding atmosphere start to finish.

What a great effort on both sides of the ball. Offensively we made the best defense in the league look very mediocre and defensively we held a potent offense in check (well at least for all but 2 drives late in the game). As always seems to be the case against BC, the Riders found a way to give me chest pains at the end but still it was an impressive team effort.

You certainly would not have known we were missing 4 defensive starters based on how they played. They came out fired up and completely shut down Lulay for 3 quarters. Lulay had 88 yards passing, no TDs and one of the dumbest picks I have ever seen (and I’ve seen Michael Bishop play) through 3 quarters. We may not have gotten any sacks but the D-line harassed him all night long and we got a lot of solid hits on him due some some well timed blitzes. Sure they let up in the 4^th quarter for 2 drives that let BC make it close but the first one was a really long drive that ate up a ton of clock so that one really didn’t bother me. Hell we held BC without a TD until 3 minutes left in the game, that’s impressive! The 3 play drive where they carved through us like a Thanksgiving turkey did bother me but other than that it was a great defensive effort.

Offensively, I can’t believe I’m saying this but I really liked our offensive game plan. BC is the best in the league and we had them on their heels for most of the game. They just couldn’t figure us out. Loved how we picked remorselessly on Cauchy Muamba who is clearly the weak link back there. I was shocked that a DC as smart as Stubler had such an awful game plan. We have one receiver: Dressler. Any idiot DC should be able to figure out he should be doubled or even tripled (not like Scott McHenry will burn you deep) but there were times where Dressler was WIDE open! He was a monster racking up the yards, TDs and flattening Adam Bighill for good measure. This is what happens when you lean on your best receiver. Also loved the run game. BC had been averaging a microscopic 70 yards rushing allowed per game, Sheets rolled over them for 100 (including a game sealing first round where everyone in the park knew he was getting it) . Huge, huge game for the O-line: 1 sack allowed, tons of time for Durant to do his thing and 100 yard rusher to boot. The hoggies earned their paycheck on Saturday.

If this is how good Durant can be without running just imagine how dangerous we can be when he starts running again. Shame about Sanders’ knee (which looked ugly) he has been such a huge playmaker for us. We struggled in the second half a bit but 27 points against the top D is good enough for me.

I have been saying this all season but look at how well the O works when you do the right things. Mix up the play calls, take shots deep to open up the coverage undernearth, lean on your top playmakers (Sheets and Dressler), protect the QB. We proved it works against the best D in the league, so if we can keep it up good things will continue to happen against other teams.

I feel the need to comment on the onside kick debacle. How in the hell is Taj Smith included on our hands team?!? He has no hands, might as well just have put Xavier Fulton out there he is also tall with questionable receiving skills.  BC recognized this immediately and kicked directly at him. Predictable he failed miserably at handling the ball could have cost us the game... he did cost my lifespan a couple years. His attempt at fielding the onside kick looked more like an air traffic controller trying to direct the ball out of bounds with hand gestures.

Scary finish aside, it was a hell of game. Great play on both sides of the ball. Huge win against a division rival who happens to be the best in the CFL. Electric atmosphere. The team has given the fans a huge reason for hope. We just beat the 2 teams ahead of us in the standings in consecutive weeks. Buckle up because the last month of the season is going to be a wild ride.

Other random thoughts:

-       On that opening kickoff reverse it was nice of Lions to reverse it right into our cover teams... they would have gotten a way better return if they just held it.

-       We threw to Scott McHenry 3 times: the first was a 9 yard gain on 2^nd and long, the second was picked off, the third should have been picked off. Memo to Bob Dyce, we should probably take that play out of the playbook.

-       That said, loved Neal Hughes leveling Byron Parker on that third one!

-       Terrible play by Willy fumbling that 3^rd down plunge, gotta secure the ball!

-       The fact that BC only has 4 loses is not surprising... the fact that we account for half of those is.

-       That was some carnage on the Collins/Bruce collision!

-       Have we seriously given up putting effort into our halftime shows? Are we just offering it up on a first come first serve basis? If so I would like to submit my application. It would probably just be me playing solitaire at mid-field but it would a remarkable improvement over every halftime show except the Sheepdogs and the actual dogs.