Riders vs. Alouettes: Thanksgiving

The Riders are in Montreal for a holiday meeting with the Als. At first glance this is anything but an even match-up. The Riders have lost as many games since Labour Day as the Als have all season. They have a receiver with more yards this season than our starters have combined. They have clinched a first-round bye. We still have a chance to miss the playoffs completely. If you want to catch a post-Thanksgiving meal turkey induced nap this might provide a decent opportunity. 

To be perfectly blunt this all boils down to how much Montreal cares. If they actually try for 4 quarters then there is little hope for optimism. But its tough to manufacture caring and the Als do not care about the outcome of any game until the East Final. So if they want to give holiday level effort or check out mentally at half time then there is a chance for an upset.

Its going to take both sides of the ball waking up. Because its been a hot minute since either side played well. Its been even longer since they played well in the same game. 

Offense is yet again a rotating carousel of injuries. Fresh off getting Baker back into the line-up we are back to one of the Big 3 as KeeSean is out. That means Bridges steps in. I like Bridges but he’s no Keesean. Als are #5 in points allowed but #2 in takeaways so the defense can be moved on but they will take advantage of mistakes. Some semblance of a running game is going to be needed. Harris just needs to find a way to get something going (before garbage time). I think the recipe is Wiebe underneath. Baker to push the ball downfield. And Bridges/Busby when they get forgotten about and Harris needs an outlet. 

Defensively we need to generate a pass rush. Hopefully getting Roberson backs reignites the front 4 because they we MIA last week. I’ll be curious to see when the depth chart comes out as word is Ford was taking reps at LB over Brooks. I came into this season high on Brooks but that has eroded faster than our collective confidence in Hales. Ford can’t cover the pass well but is an effective runstopper so maybe LB suits his skillset better. We also get Campbell back. He’s another guy I have been down on this season. He was mediocre at best before his injury. But he may be a spark this group needs. We can’t generate a game changing play to save our soul. Lokombo and Ford are tied for second on the team in INTs with 1. Campbell is at least a guy with the speed to turn a mis-timed pass into a big time play. Not saying he will… but he definitely can. With the top 2 WRs in the league out best hope is get some pressure on Alexander. Hit him enough that either he gets cautious or Maas gets cautious on his behalf.

Special teams do intrigue me. Lauther makes his re-debut and should be used to kicking out East. Surprisingly it looks like Sexton is back. He would bring a needed boost to our return game.

I do think we split this set with Als and win next week. But nothing about this one screams confidence to me. Montreal is never a place we do well. Maybe a holiday weekend will limit the options for extra-curriculars. The Als are also the best team in the CFL. Even if they are running at 80% effort they are a better team than we are right now.

Here’s the scenario I could see leading to a surprise win. We keep it close but trail by 7-10 points for 3 quarters vs. the Als starters. Then it starts getting chippy and the Als start shutting down their stars and Harris (ever the master at padding those garbage time yards) does just enough to sneak one out.

Better days are coming. I am far more hopeful about our remaining 2 games and even think this is a team that could make noise in a semi. But I am about as confident in this week as I am in my ability to only have one helping at Thanksgiving supper.

Als by a Maltos Diaz FG in the dying minutes. 

Saturday Morning Sentimonies: /=S=/ucks to /=S=/uck

I am going to put as much effort into this post as the Riders put into the game last night. Also, I am about the flee the country for a few days so wanted to leave you with my sentimonies before I left.

And those sentimonies are… we suck. In a massively important game in front of our home crowd the team game out with all the energy and urgency of a preseason game. Defense delivered one great series, which Quali Conley them promptly f’ed up. The offense responded with one great drive and then when to sleep until it was time to pile up garbage time stats. D-line could not get within an area code of D and we suddenly seem religiously opposed to pressure… instead opting for the “drop 9, fail  to cover anyone” zone. O-line could not generating anything resembling a run game against one of the statistically worse run defenses in the CFL. We just looked bad. 

We keep digging our hole deeper and deeper going from contending for first, to in the mix for a home playoff game to now our options are looking like crossover or miss the playoffs.

At leas the halftime show was really cool.

See you next week

Riders vs. Stampeders: Friday Night Lights

It may be the lights out game but the spotlight will be shining bright on the Riders on Friday night. The Stamps are in town and the Riders need a win. A win clinches a playoff spot and keeps us in the hunt for second. A loss could drop us down into the West basement and leave us having lost the season series to every western opponent. 

Coming into town is a team that quite frankly defies most conventional logic. The Stamps are at risk of missing the playoffs despite leading the CFL in scoring, having a +9 turnover ratio, having a QB with a 29/3 TD/INT ratio, and the CFL sack leader. They should be in contention for a home playoff game not in contention for an extra early Dickenson bowling extravaganza. 

If you want to know how you struggle with an offense this powerful, just pair them with an abysmal defense like the Stamps have. The existence of the RedBlacks is the only thing keeping the Stamps from being worst in every defensive category. 8^th in both yards and points allowed. Where I would immediately look to attack is the ground. They allow a league worst 6.0 yards per carry. Neutralize the pass rush of Hicks and attack a weak point. Ouellette ran well against the league’s #1 run D last week. He should have a big game against the 8^th ranked run D. We even have an opportunity to mix in Conley for the first time this season with both on the roster. The Stamps will give up a ton of yards and points but they are ball hawks and look for turnovers. Gotta be smart with the ball. I think getting Wiebe back will be an underrated boost. He is essentially a Canadian Dressler at this point and Harris likes him underneath. Now with Keesean, Baker and Wiebe there’s no reason not to not only chew up yards but get into the endzone with some regularity. 

Defense is really gonna depend on which version shows up. I have seen them punch above their weight class and keep us in games our offense has no interest in helping them win. I have seen them look so lost they can scarcely tie their cleats let only cover a pass. The run D will be rock solid, that we know. Pass D… who knows. We know that VA is a Jekyll and Hyde type QB. When he’s on he can play like the second coming of Doug Flutie. When he’s off he makes Chris Jones’ assessment that Brandon Bridge belonged above him on the depth chart seem justified. The key is pressure. If he has time he will dissect you. If he is rushed and more importantly hit, he will make mistakes at an increasing rate. The good news is that Calgary’s O-line’s only claim to fame is that they have made VA the most sacked QB in the league. No excuse not to win the battle in the trenches. In their second game as a unit we need to see the secondary look they aren’t looking at 5 different play books. 

Another weakness of Calgary that could play a role is discipline. No one has taken more penalties than the Stamps. They balance that with a dangerous kick returner that I could see having a big return at some point. 

The Riders need a win. We could win out and still finish 3^rd place. That’s how tight the race in the West is. But here’s the thing… the Stamps are 2-5 vs. the West. Their offensive stats are impressive but they are somewhat inflated from averaging 42 points per game when playing Ottawa or Hamilton. We should be the better team. But the Stamps are no pushover. If we take them lightly they could easily lay a beating on us. 

The last time we played at home we won. Hopefully the comforts of home are exactly what we need to get back on track. 

Riders by an Ouelette TD.