Monday Morning Senitmonies: Kian Schaefer-Baker and the Rider Receivers

Big news this past week in Riderville was that Schaefer-Baker had undergone hip surgery and would miss “at least the first part of the season”. This is a rumour that had been floating out there for a while but you need to be pretty careful in terms of what Rider rumours you put any stock in otherwise you might still be wondering what Bo Levi Mitchell did with that house he bought in Regina.

Obviously this hurts the Riders in the short-term. Not only is Baker a stud receiver, we are currently a team without a bona fide #1 receiver and he had the best odds of being that guy. Apparently this is something that had been nagging him for a while. So for me the silver lining is that there is a possibility that when he does come back, he will somehow be better than what we have seen so far. A Baker at 100% down the back half of the season and into playoffs (if we happen to be so lucky as to be in contention for that) would be outstanding.

My concern though is the wording they are using. They aren’t really giving a time estimate (though the first third of the season has been mentioned i.e. 6 games). Also, they are using terms like “at least” and vague statements like “the first part of the season”. Reading between the lines I don’t think this is something we should expect an early return from. I’m also a bit worried given our recent history. Just last year Micah Teitz had a hip issue heading into the season that not a lot of details were given on. As the season wore on, the only thing scarcer than offensive TDs was Teitz. He did not play one snap. Now Teitz apparently got injured in May and had a groin issue to go along with it so Baker is certainly further ahead. But the point is that hip issues can drag on. Let’s all keep positive thoughts that it will be sooner rather than later that we see Baker doing his thing on the field again. My early wild ass guess is he makes his triumphant return on Labour Day.

This injury may explain how the NFL seemed to inexplicably pass on him after he tried out for a third of the league.

The short term impacts of Baker’s absence will be double. First and foremost he is our best receiver. Some of you will disagree and point to Walker or Wieneke. I have said this before and will reiterate that I believe both have potential but Walker hasn’t been a number one guy in 4 years and Wieneke has always played beside Geno Lewis and we don’t have a Geno on this roster. Both could be great but are far from a sure thing at this point. The other impact is that Baker is a Canadian. In theory, Lenius, Picton, Brescacin and Emilus should be able to step in. But even communism works “in theory”. I honestly worry that this will make O’Day think he needs to draft another Canadian receiver in the first or second round, ignoring far greater needs elsewhere.

For now we wish Baker a speedy recovery… and eagerly await the chance to talk about positive Rider news… at some point… right?

Monday Morning Sentimonies: Random Quasi-Coherent Thoughts

 

-        Like most of the world I am furious that my absolute zero knowledge of NCAA did not translate into winning my March Madness pool.  I am outraged that teams I put zero effort in to researching failed to make it out of the first and/or second round rather than making the Final Four as I expected.

-        Lots of CFL talk about expansion this week. A tenth team would be great and should be a goal. Not only for the good news story it would be but also from a balanced schedule and increase in TV product.

-        That said, asking someone to own a CFL team at this point is the equivalent of that time Bart Simpson asked to be Mr. Burns’ heir. You are asking people to take on a liability that will at best break even most years. I think the CFL needs to first focus on improving the financial sustainability of their operations through things like expanded US TV deals, streaming deals and more year-round money making events (like CFL week). If people see a reasonable  chance to actually make money they may be more likely to invest.

-        The Riders seem long overdue to release a new overt money grab… err I mean jersey. Even if the jersey is terrible, it’s a guaranteed cash injection in Sask. They could even up the ante and give people what they want… Black Jerseys. Some people love, em some people hate em but they will sell like crazy.

-        St Patrick’s day got me thinking about how its kinda surprising the Riders don’t sell green beer on game day. They could charge $0.50 extra for “Rider Pride” beer (aka low-grade Pilsner and food dye) and people would be all over it.

-        While we are talking easy money makers the Riders are missing out on… Bobby Jurasin bandanas.

-        All I ask is a small commission in return as my consultant fee.

Monday Morning Sentimonies: Canadian Receivers

I’ll warn you in advance that today we are going down a rabbit hole. I stumbled down this rabbit hole while researching last week’s post on O’Day’s drafting. While I’m sure this information is relatively useless in the grand scheme of things, I’m sharing it anyway because maybe one of my half dozens of readers will find this as interesting as me (aka I'll feel reassured if someone is as boring and lame as me).

So we know from last week that O’Day likes to draft receivers early. So that led me to a very simple question of “How successful are Canadian receivers drafted in the first round?”. Basically, what is your likely return on investment for a first round WR.

The results are pretty awful. Now I’ll will preface this by saying that receivers are not always unique in this. The number of 1^st round CFL picks that pan out is not huge. But receivers appear to be even riskier than the norm. I’m sure teams are worried about passing on the next Clermont or Fantuz but the reality is that is a pretty small risk. 

Here is a list of every receiver drafted in the first round since 2011:

·        Anothony Parker

·        Jade Etienne

·        Marco Iannuzzi

·        Nate Coehoorn

·        Shamawd Chambers

·        Devon Bailey

·        Nic Demski

·        Brian Jones

·        Tevaughn Smith

·        Danny Vandervoot

·        Nate Behar

·        Mark Chapman

·        Justin McInnis

·        Hergy Mayala

·        Dejon Brissett

·        Jalen Philpot

·        Sam Emilus

·        Tyson Philpot

What jumps out about that list? … It contains very few studs and very many duds. I’ll reserve judgment for on the Philpott’s for now as they look to have high ceilings. But so far there is only one guy on that list that is a stud. That being Demski. He is literally a once in a decade talent. Other than Demski only two other people on that list has got over 650 yards in a season and only three others have put up 5 or more TDs in a season. That means you have less than a 50% chance of getting even a moderately impactful player and more than a 50%  chance someone who will never top 350 yards. Also worth noting that over the past 10 years, only twice has a receiver drafted in the first round led the league in receiving yards by a Canadian (Fantuz 2016 and Demski 2021).

So based on how many 1^st round WR end up being mediocre or worse, it got me wondering how a GM would fare if they adopted a policy of never drafting a receiver in the first round. Not saying someone would or should do it, just curious how it would pan out in theory.

Since 2011, there were 4 years that you would have had to use a 1^st round pick to get the best receiver. But the other 7 years, if you have avoided the first round, you still could have gotten the best receiver in the draft (in my opinion). That includes 2011 when a record 4 receivers went in the first round but the best receiver ended up being a 4^th round QB (Sinopoli). It also included 2019 when 4 receivers went in the first 2 rounds and the Argos patiently waited and got Kurleigh Gittens in the 3^rd. And 2020 when the Argos were at the other end of the spectrum, using the 2^nd overall pick on Dejon Brisset when the best receiver was still available 28 picks later in the 4^th round when the Riders took Schaefer-Baker.

Not only are your odds better of finding the best receiver in the draft outside of the first round, if we go back to the stat that over the past 10 years, only twice has a receiver drafted in the first round led the league in receiving yards by a Canadian, in the remaining 7 seasons the top receiver was a second rounder 1 time (Durant), third rounder 1 time (Gittens), a fourth rounder 3 times (Sinopoli x 3), fifth rounder once (Getzlaf) and undrafted once (Bagg).

All this to say that while some 1st round WRs do end up being worth it, overall prioritizing drafting Canadian receivers may not be the most effective strategy.

This concludes this week's installment of insight and analysis that is most likely useless.

Monday Morning Sentimonies: O’Day Don’t Draft OL

We are heading into our third year where the primary topic of discussion when it comes to the Riders is the O-line… or lack thereof. A consistent question I have kept hearing over the years is “why does O’Day (an all-star lineman in his day) seem to struggle with that position above all else?” I will add a further element to the question… How does a former all-star o-lineman inherit one of the best OL in the CFL coming out of the 2018 season and turn it into a laughing stock in under 3 years? 

Obviously a lot goes into how well an O-line plays: coaching, health, play calling, whether your QB pre-turtles or spins left right into the pass rush repeatedly. Also some things happen outside of the GM’s control. Shepley going to the NFL and Cofield opting out after Covid set us back a lot and were not O’Day’s fault.

That said, the hypothesis I aim to prove this morning, is that O’Day's approach to drafting is a significant factor in how we got to where we are. As the title of this post implies, that hypothesis is that Jeremy O’Day Don’t Draft O-lineman… or at least, he does not believe that it is a priority. 

Here’s some stats to back my claim:

-        In 4 years as GM, he has drafted a total of 6 O-lineman. Of those, only 2 were drafted in the 1^st or 2^nd round (and thus far have combined for 0 starts and 1 game played)

-        In those same 4 years he has drafted 6 receivers. Of those, 4 were drafted in the 1^st or 2^nd round.

-        He has used exactly 1 of his 4 first round picks on an OL.

-        In half of his drafts he has not drafted an OL until the 5^th round.

Do these look like the actions of a GM who believes in making Canadian OL a priority? Or someone who thinks the secret to winning a Grey Cup is Canadian receievers? 

If you want a comparison point, over 3 drafts Chris Jones drafted 8 OL and used a 1^st or 2^nd round pick on an OL every year he was here. People will point to St John but he also brought in Bladek and Shepley (and hell, at least St John at least played football for us). 

Now, I could look individually at each draft and maybe rationalize each decision in isolation. In 2019 we had a stacked OL and a need at WR. In 2020 was a pretty thin OL class and we tried. 2021, Lokombo fit a need in terms of Canadian depth on defense. 2022 the best OL were gone by our 1^st round pick and we got a good one in round 2 (supposedly). But the issue is the sum of all these individual decisions. Over a 4 year period, O’Day has not made drafting OL a priority and it caught up with him in a big way.

If we look at the measuring bars of success Winnipeg (the best team in the West 3 years running) has used a 1^st round pick on OL twice as much as O’Day. Toronto (reigning champs) have done it 4 times as often. Yes that is not the sole determinant of a championship team but it certainly helps. Also, there are only 2 teams with less 1^st round OL picks than O’Day: BC and Montreal. Again OL is not the sole determinant but coincidentally those 2 teams have the longest Grey Cup appearance drought spanning more than a decade each.

 So if O’Day is serious about building a sustainably successful OL, then he needs to alter his approach to drafting and actually make it a priority. O’Day seems to be way more effective at drafting in the later rounds than the early round. His picks in the 4^th round or later have netted us Schaefer-Baker, Dabire and Dalke. Outside of Lenius his early round picks have thus far failed to make a noticeable impact. 

Will O’Day learn his lesson? We will see come the 2023 draft in May. Though based on his drafting history it would be a way safer bet to put money on another early round WR being drafted than an OL that will do anything for this franchise.

Monday Morning Sentimonies: Take A Look Around

The dust has pretty much settled on free agency. So this morning I thought I would take a look at how each team stacks up on paper at this point in the offseason. We will look at a strength and potential weakness heading into the season.

BC

Strength – BC was 3^rd in sacks. They didn’t really lose anyone from that D-line and could potentially add Steven Richardson to the mix, who missed all of last year due to injury.

Weakness – Pass protection stands out for me. BC allowed the 5^th least sacks but that stat is very skewed by who the starting QB was. They allowed 10 sacks in 10 Rourke games but 29 in 8 Adams games. At that pace had Adams played the full year they would have been 2^nd only to the Riders in sacks allowed. While they upgraded at centre with Couture they lost Joel Figueroa at tackle in the offseason.

Edmonton

Strength – Chris Jones year 2 is generally a good enough reason for me but while its just generally assumed the D will continue to improve, the Elks caught everyone’s attention with what they did on offense. Despite having stud rookies in RB Kevin Brown and WR Dilon Mitchell, they didn’t stand pat. They went out and got Geno Lewis, Steven Dunbar and Kyran Moore. That’s a lot of firepower if Cornelius can start playing with some consistency.

Weakness - Outside of the D-line (which is coming along nicely) I’m not convinced Jones has enough horses yet on D. They will certainly be better but the secondary really only has Purifoy and Grymes and the Linebackers aren’t super impressive. The D will certainly continue to improve under Jones but he may be one season away from the dominant D we typically associate with him.

Calgary

Strength – That is a damn good defense and I see no reason that won’t continue. You would think losing Ormiolade, Thurman and Banks would be an issue but they added Howsare, Vaughters and Awe to offset.

Weakness – I’m not sold on that passing attack. Their run game is scary but they were 7^th last year in passing and did nothing to address that. In theory you should be good with Begelton, Henry and Philpot but it didn’t work great last year and they also lost one of their tackles in Julian Good-Jones. They also have no one to fall back on if Maier falters.

Saskatchewan

Strength – Depth is a concern but assuming the starters are healthy the defense is shaping up nicely. Micah, Lanier and Robertson up front. Teitz, Dean and Moncrief at LB. Secondary has Marshall, Milligan and Clark. Plus we will have a damn good D-Coordinator in Shivers.

Weakness – Going to reserve judgement on OL but obviously that remains a giant question mark but even if we get that back to mildly competent I don’t think we have a bonafide #1 receiver. Pretty much every other team does. I think we have a lot of solid #2’s like Lenius, Wieneke and Bane. Schaefer-Baker is the only guy with the potential to step up into that #1 spot. But at this point there is no one that defenses have to game plan for specifically.

Winnipeg

Strength – Collaros + Lawler + Schoen + Bailey + Demski. Good luck defending that passing attack.

Weakness – Winnipeg is a team getting old quickly. Jefferson, Bighill, Jeffcoat, Bryant, Hardrick, Neufeld all are 32 or older. D-line was still good but amazingly second last in sacks and now they lost Casey Sayles who had 6 sacks last season. I still expect Winnipeg to be good but they are approaching the end of the window with this group. Just remains to be seen if they can squeeze one more year out.

Hamilton

Strength – Their D-line features Ja’Gared Davis, Casey Sayles, Dylan Wynn, Ted Laurent and Kwaku Boateng. Assuming Boateng is back to full health that’s an intimating front 4.

Weakness – I remain firm in my belief that Bo Levi Mitchell’s body can’t stand up to a full season. I expect him to look like a world beater for 4 games but then what? You are either rolling with a broken Mitchell or hoping Matt Schiltz can carry the load.

Toronto

Strength – Toronto does not have an OL older than 29. That group includes proven players like Ciraco, Hunter, Bladek and Allen. They are in an enviable position with the youth and depth they have there.

Weakness – Going to ignore the obvious (the unknown at QB) and go with pass defense. In 2022, they were the 2^nd worst against the pass. They lost their best DB in Jamal Peters to the NFL and didn’t add anything really. They have an impressive front 7 but that back end could continue to be an issue for them.

Montreal

Strength – Jason Maas. Haha just kidding. But he does have a significantly better OL at his disposal. Guys like Lawrence, Lestage, Rice, Matte and Jameison. Lots of question marks in Montreal but OL is in a pretty good place.

Weakness – Even if Jason Maas manages to get his offensive groove back and even if Fajardo can regain his form, I’m not sure who they are throwing to. Their best receiver is a 34 year old Ellingson (who hasn’t played a full season in a while) and then ?? Reggie White maybe. Lot of question marks with that offense. Their best asset is the running back and Jason Maas has no use for that.

Ottawa

Strength – You have to go back to 2018 to find a time Ottawa did not have exclusive possession of last place in the East. Is there hope of a change in fortune on the horizon? I’m not so sure. I honestly struggled with this. I think Bob Dyce will bring some much needed stability to the coaching there. But the closest thing I could find to a strength was the D-line led by Mauldin and Laing.

Weakness – While I expect a healthy Masoli to boost the O, I don’t hold out as much hope for the D. They allowed the most yards and 2^nd most points last season and I don’t see any offseason upgrades. I don’t see Santos-Knox and Brooks being the solution when their addition is offset by the loss of Pruneau and Williams.

 

Monday Morning Sentimonies: How Did We Do?

We are now a week into free agency. The Riders were fairly active as expected. Now before we start the stupid annual tradition of crowning who won free agency let’s remember that the worst teams are the most active in free agency. The good teams don’t need to be active. I’m certainly not prepared to say the Riders are a good team yet. But considering that just a few weeks ago we were trending towards dumpster fire, we are certainly in a better spot than I expected us to be.

Here’s essential what happened in free agency. We traded:

Cody Fajardo for Trevor Harris

Dan Clark and Terran Vaughn for Peter Godber and Philip Blake

Kyran Moore, Shaq Evans and Duke Williams for Jake Wieneke and Shawn Bane

Justin McInnis for Juwan Bescacin

AC Leonard for Micah Johnson and Stefen Banks

Let’s take a more detailed look at who we signed.

Trevor Harris – Somehow a team in the most need of a QB had the best one on the free agent market fall into our lap. I don’t think Harris is the second coming of Doug Flutie but I do think he will bring some much needed stability to the QB position. He has a career TD/INT ratio of 154/71 and a completion percentage of 70%. Also, as much as I liked Cody I think Harris will bring some much needed veteran leadership to the offense. The theory is that he is a quick release QB and can help our OL. I only buy that to a certain degree. If a D knows all you can do is short passes your O won’t be effective for long. Harris will go as far as our OL and offensive scheme will let him. We should still be happy to have Harris.

Jake Wieneke – Its nice to get a WR that our new QB already has a ton of trust in. Also a bonus that he scored 18 TDs in 2019 and 2021 combined. For a team that just lost all its American receivers, he was needed add. Now here comes me being a negative Nancy. I don’t think he’s a #1 receiver. All his best years in Montreal he played alongside Geno Lewis. So he benefited greatly from the space he created. He’s like a more talented Getzlaf. Can find great success in the space created by others but can’t carry the load on his own. I don’t think we have bonafide #1 on the roster other than possibly Baker.

Shawn Bane – Fills the Kyran Moore role. Speedy receiver/returner. Will be a good add if we can find a way to utilize his speed in space.

Juwan Brescacin – This was the one signing I did not understand. Don’t get me wrong Brescacin is a good depth Canadian WR but that was one of the few positions we did not have a need at. With Baker, Lenius, Picton and Emilus already I’m juts not sure why he was needed. Canadian depth is never a bad thing just not really a priority need.

Peter Godber and Philip Blake – Rider Nation has been eagerly awaiting what we were going to do to fix our embarrassment of an OL so these signings were some welcome news. Again, negative Nancy here: given that we missed out on Figueroa, Desjarlais, Ciraco, Couture and Chung we at best got the 6^th and 7^th best options available. They are still an upgrade by our standards. Blake is a Canadian who can play every position on the OL. I know after years of being told Canadians like Boyko and Campbell can play tackle we are skeptical but old man Blake can legit hold his own there. Did it in the Grey Cup against Jefferson and Jeffcoat. Also, with Godber replacing Clark we will need Blake’s leadership.

Side note: I have been one of the harshest critics of Clark’s in the province. To the point where they threatened to revoke my Saskatchewan citizenship. But dammit if I don’t respect the heart and soul he poured in this team. His journey is a hell of a story if this ends up being it.

Micah Johnson – I was at least 50% joking when I said that Micah was due for his every other season stint in Saskatchewan. 2019, 2021 and now 2023. Might as well place your bets now for a 4^th stint starting in 2025. At 34, Johnson is not the dominant force he once was. But he’s still pretty damn good. Pairing him with Lanier in the middle makes for a formidable force up the middle. Word is we got him for a steal of $118k. Similar to Blake, I think Johnson will bring some much needed leadership in the trenches. 

Stefen Banks – I think Banks has the highest ceiling of any of our signings. Back to back 4 sack seasons as a rotational player in Calgary. I think with full time reps (especially getting to play alongside Micah, Lanier and Robertson) he could be in for a breakout season. He’s only 25.

Quick hitters: Godfrey Oneyka is a needed depth signing on D as he can fill in on multiple spots. Herdman-Reed is a similar Canadian special team. Not a sexy signing but needed. We also signed global player Valentin Gnahoua… he likely has to make the club on special teams.

 Overall, as I said, we are a better team and trending in the right direction but we are still not ready to ascend to the upper edges of the West just yet. I say we still have needs at WR, depth at LB and DL and our OL is based on the theory that one of our signings can play tackle. 

Monday Morning Sentimonies: Free Agent Frenzy 2023

Teams have been negotiating with pending free agents for a week now and while the rules say they can’t actually sign deals yet, many have been agreed to. Let’s take a look at what the Riders have done so far and what remains on the to do list.

Some of the best news came in regards to who were are keeping. The biggest (literally and figuratively) was Anthony Lanier. Top end D-tackles do not grow on trees. So yeah we had to pay him but he’s worth it. We needed a strong DT. Add in Robertson and Dean and our defense has a pretty solid foundation at this point. On offense we kept the very versatile and very underrated Mitch Picton (I am an unabashed Picton fan). The biggest news may be a certain other Canadian receiver who hasn’t signed elsewhere yet. I don’t want to jinx it by actually saying anything specifically but if said receiver does not sign a deal by tomorrow they would be coming back here. That would be massive.

I should also be upfront that I am not a CFL insider. Like the rest of you I get my news from the actual reporters. Right now Justin Dunk and Farhan Lalji are the go to sources for knowledge. So I have no special insight into who may or may not be coming/leaving here. I just make educated guesses based on available information.

Change is coming (and we knew that). Looks like gone are Fajardo (Mtl), Evans (Ott), Moore (Edm) and Duke (Ham). So it will be a new look offense. Odds seem next to nil that Sankey will be back (my gut says he lands in BC).

We do appear to have found a QB. Montreal’s gross incompetence has someone led to us getting Trevor Harris. O'Day has pulled a Homer (if you are not a Simpsons fan like me just Google it). Look Harris is no miracle worker or Flutie. But he is a reliable seasoned vet and for a team that entered the offseason as close to a dumpster fire as you can get without lighting a match, we are fortunate to get him. I think he will bring much needed stability to the offense… until he gets killed behind our line. He’s also bringing Jake Weineke with him. Last year was a down year for him but with 19 TDs in the 2 seasons before that Weineke will be a good add. Word is we will also likely land OL Darius Ciraco (finally a much needed boost to our OL) and Stefen Banks (who I see as an up and coming pass rusher). 

So what’s left? Well we still need Offensive Tackles but with Figueroa (the only real tackle on the market) rumored to be heading to Hamilton the answer to that position is not available in free agency. Good thing O’Day has such a great record when it comes to recruiting OL (almost typed that with a straight face). Other needs are more OL help, an American WR, depth a Canadian LB/safety. We have Tietz, Lokombo and Dalke. 2 of them will be starting so depth behind them is a concern. LB depth would also be nice.

When looking at guys that haven’t yet reportedly agreed to sign elsewhere, here are some names that I’d have interest in if I were GM.

WR Kamar Jorden – I keep saying that his value will never be lower coming off his worst season as a pro. I think he is primed for a bounce back and I’d love that to be with us.

WR Markeith Ambles – Another guy I think comes cheaper than the top end guys going for 200-300K but would still be a valuable weapon.

OL Justin Lawrence – He plays centre like Ciraco but one could easily move to guard. I somehow doubt this happens as I think O’day still sees Ferland and Johnson as starters and Lawrence ain’t coming for back-up money. But a man can dream.

DB Elie Boula – Not a top end or sexy name but he’s a versatile Canadian defender that would add great depth if we brought him back

DL Micah Johnson – For the right price I still think he can be part of a solid DL rotation.

LB Micah Awe – Hard hitting LB.

OL Ucambre Williams – Not a top end tackle but certainly better than anything we have.

WR Brandon Banks – Just kidding, mostly just testing to see if you are still paying attention.

Certainly interested to see what tomorrow has in store.